Friday, July 31, 2026
Upside follow through to yesterdays big gains as the Dow climbed 277 points on heavy volume to close out the month of July. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still trending sideways in a slight downward channel. The gains would have been even better but there was a drop at the close as somebody was getting out. Once again the NASDAQ led the way and that is encouraging for the bulls. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still moving up with room to go. Perhaps my view of caution here is wrong but I'm sticking with it for now. Again today the breadth isn't near what it should be for a market traveling higher. We are looking at the SPY August puts. Gold was off over fifty bucks today to finish the week. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates rose. The XAU lost ten points and GDX slid 2 2/3. Volume remains light here. Some of the short term indicators on GDX have turned lower while others are moving sideways. Yesterday I failed to mention that GDX had made it back to the longer term down trend line from the beginning of the year on its weekly chart. It was turned away again today. Getting through that line would further strengthen the case for the GDX calls. But it hasn't happened yet. If the short term indicators for GDX continue to weaken that line will remain in effect. Mentally I'm feeling tired. The VIX bounced around today but finished lower which fits with an up market. The short term indicators for the VIX are heading lower with some at the mid-range level. The VIX looks like it wants to go lower but I certainly don't have a good handle right now on this gauge. A lot going on this past week as we saw big moves in both directions for stocks. Definitely not a quiet summer thus far. I'll be checking the charts seeking clues to the next trade over Saturday and Sunday. Asia and Europe were higher to close out the week with the exception of the FTSE. It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.
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