Monday, July 06, 2026
Stocks moved higher coming back after a long holiday weekend as the Dow gained 155 points on good volume to a new high. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending higher. The NASDAQ led the way up and that's a plus for the bulls. The S&P 500 was up over fifty points and made it through the short term down trend line. The short term indicators here are trending up. Not yet short term overbought on the S&P. Gold was up $48 on the futures. The US dollar finished unchanged and interest rates dipped slightly. The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX rose 1/3. Volume was light. Gold itself up and the gold shares not moving is not a good sign as it shows no interest. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to move sideways. The gold shares had a big gap higher at the open and then sold off before moving sideways for the rest of the session. Not a promising picture. The GDX July calls that I own are still showing a profit but it is possible that early today was the time to sell them. My thinking here though is to hold this trade until sometime next week. The down trend line on the daily GDX chart comes in at 84 which is where I think it will get back to. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which fits an up market. The short term indicators here are now very oversold. They can stay that way during rallies but some near term selling would not be unexpected. That would not bode well for holding onto the GDX calls that we own but if it is just a pause the trade could probably handle that. We'll see. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed to begin the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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