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Tuesday, October 07, 2025

Some overdue selling today as the Dow fell 92 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is trending lower. It was a one day downside reversal as stocks opened higher and closed lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but it wasn't anything dramatic. That is exactly how it has been lately. When we have seen any selling it has been minor and short lived. That could again be the case here but we don't know for certain. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold. My open order for the SPY October puts almost got filled in the morning but didn't. I adjusted it during the session but still no fill. I will probably adjust it again overnight. My thinking now is that this is something that I want to get filled on but I am not looking for a major decline to be starting here, just a tradeable one. I'll give this some more thought tonight. Gold simply continues to move straight up climbing another $27 on the futures to finish above the $4000 level. The US dollar was higher and interest rates dipped. The XAU dropped over 4 3/4 and GDX shed 1 2/3. Volume was average. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't exactly a positive development here but it's only one day. The short term indicators on GDX have turned down but it remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today and that fits with a down market. The short term indicators here are moving up and are almost short term overbought. This points to the possibility that the selling that we are seeing will be ending rather quickly. That would mean the risk in trying the SPY puts here may not be worth it. Which is something else to consider later tonight. Europe and Asia were slightly higher overnight. Some Asian markets a closed for holiday this week. I'll keep an eye on tonights headlines.

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