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Wednesday, October 22, 2025

Sellers took over today as the Dow fell 334 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is still struggling to turn back up. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that is not a plus. It could have been worse though as stocks finished up from the lows on the session. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have turned lower but I'm still in the camp that we'll hit new all time highs soon. I could be wrong. We'll see ow the rest of the week shapes up. Gold finished up $9 on the futures after being lower early on. The US dollar ended the day unchanged along with interest rates. The XAU was up 1 1/2 and GDX rose 1/4. Volume was heavy again. The gold shares came up from their lows on the session as well. GDX has made it back to its 50 day moving average. We'll see if it holds. The short term indicators here are not yet completely oversold. It was quite a run for GDX but it has now at one point lost 17% in the past week. Gold itself is still very far from its 50 day moving average. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up a bit today which fits with a down market. The short term indicators are beginning to trend sideways. Some are oversold and others are not. The VIX was over the twenty level at some point today but then fell back. If the short term indicators for the VIX begin to rise again, volatlity will return and my prognosis of new all time highs will have to be put on hold. Fridays inflation data and the market reaction to it should give us some clues. Asia and Europe finished generally lower last night. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

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