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Monday, October 06, 2025

Another mixed market as the Dow dropped while the overall market gained. The most watched index fell 63 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending lower. Both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ closed at new all time highs. The S&P remains short term overbought. My open order for the SPY October puts remains out there. Hopefully it will get filled tomorrow as the sell signal on one of our indicators remains out there. I might have to adjust the order to get it filled but we should see some selling this week according to the techncials. Gold continues to move straight up as the futures gained $74 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates moved up as well. The XAU was up 5 1/8 and GDX rose 1 1/2. Volume was a bit above average. Thankfully we took off the GDX put idea last week. I'm still a believer that this rally in gold and the gold shares will have a nasty pullback at some point. GDX has remained short term overbought for such a long time that you begin to think that it will never drop again. But it will. Straight up moves never have a good ending. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today. The short term indicators are starting to roll over by the mid-range level. This would imply higher stock prices in the near term. That would not bode well for the SPY put idea. The Bollinger bands here remain pretty tight but we haven't seen any really big moves despite that. Asia was generally higher and Europe lower to begin the week. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

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