Tuesday, October 14, 2025
A mixed bag today but the Dow managed a gain of 202 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to turn back up. The NASDAQ had a decent drop and the S&P 500 was slightly lower. We retested the recent lows on the S&P early this morning and they held for now. The question now is will the S&P head down there again and will the lows hold on a third drop? Today the S&P made it back to the first resistance at 6680 and was turned back in the final half hour. With only three days to go in the October option cycle is it worth the risk for another trade here? Well yes, if the timing in and out is correct. But that is no easy task. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are still heading lower and others remain at mid-range. I'll consider what I want to do overnight. Gold was up $27 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 1/2, while GDX slid 7/8. Volume was average. The short term indicators on GDX are overbought but not completely. Some of them are starting to turn down. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't a positive. Mentally I'm feeling a little tired. The VIX bounce around and finished higher on the session. The short term indicators here are back to pointing up. The VIX is back above the important level of 20. So volatility should stick around for a while. Headline risk remains front and center since there is no economic data to trade on. Asia and Europe were lower overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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