Monday, October 13, 2025
A huge bounce back to the upside as the Dow gained 588 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were around 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving lower. There was a big gap on the open and the market never looked back. The NASAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. The S&P 500 was up over 100 points. Normally we'd be looking for a retest of the recent lows but the price action of the past couple of days has been headline driven so I don't know what to expect. Not looking at the SPY October calls anymore as the jump has already happened. Might try the puts again but with only four days left in the October option cycle the risk is very high. The short term indicators for the S&P are at mid-range with some of them pointing higher. There is some short term resistance at 6680 and plenty more at 6720. Those would be areas to think about the puts if we get that far. However there is also the possibility that the market simply continues to move higher from here. Gold gained $125 on the futures today to a new all time high. Silver hit a new high as well. The US dollar was up and interest rates finished flat. The XAU jumped 14 and GDX was up 3 1/2. Volume was a bit above average. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up. There is no stopping the money flowing into precious metals or so it seems. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and closed back below 20. The short term indicators here have turned back down. That would imply more stock gains in the near term. We'll see. Asia lower and Europe higher to start the week. I'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.
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