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Friday, October 03, 2025

A mixed bag to end the week but the Dow managed a gain of 238 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to stall. The NASDAQ posted a small loss, while the S&P 500 finished basically unchanged. The S&P remains short term overbought. I'm leaving my open order for the SPY October puts out there but might adjust it over the weekend. Still on a sell signal for one of our indicators that we like but it can be early at times. But not more than a couple of days. We will most likely try and buy the puts on Monday barring a huge rally. Gold was up $44 on the futures to a new all time high and also crossed the $3900 level. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were higher. The XAU was up 3/4 and GDX finished flat. Volume was light. Gold up and the gold shares really didn't follow. That is not a plus for the bulls. GDX remains short term overbought as it has been for weeks. Will gold reach $4000 next week? Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished little changed. The short term indicators are trending higher but not yet overbought. I'm still not sure where the VIX is headed next. Another positive week for stocks as the rally seemingly has nothing to derail it. Plenty of money still to go around. It will end at some point but we certainly don't know what the catalyst will be. Two weeks left in the October option cycle. I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual. Europe and Asia finished Friday on the plus side except for the Hang Seng and the DAX. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Thursday, October 02, 2025

The Dow gained 78 points in an up and down session to a new all time high again. The advance/declines were slightly negative and volume was heavy. The summation index continues to trend lower. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ posted new records as well. The S&P continues to be short term overbought and continues to move higher. This has been the case for a couple of months now. We're getting another sell signal from one of our indicators. I've placed an open order for the SPY October puts and I'm leaving it out there. Ideally this order would be filled early next week but markets rarely cooperate. It is also a more tricky trading environment with the US government shutdown. We'll stick with the technicals though. Gold dipped $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates ended flat. The XAU lost 1 2/3 and GDX fell 1/4. Volume was heavy. It was a very volatile session for the gold shares as GDX had an intraday swing of 4 points. Not sure what it all means but the gold shares finished well up from the lows of the session. Still considering the GDX October puts for now but really looking at the SPY options for the next trade. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today which once again doesn't fit with an up market. The short term indicators here are moving up from the mid-range level. Still not sure what's next for the VIX. Asia and Europe were higher with the exception of the FTSE. We'll see where things go on Friday and take it from there.

Wednesday, October 01, 2025

We had a one day upside reversal to begin the month of October as stocks opened lower and closed higher. The Dow rose 43 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way up. Even a US government shutdown wasn't enough to derail the bulls. However another problem to deal with here is that the economic reports might be delayed. We won't know when important trading data will be released. As if trading itself wasn't hard enough as it is. The DOW and S&P 500 set new all time highs. The NASDAQ is almost there. I'm still considering the SPY October puts if we stay positive into Friday. The S&P remains short term overbought. Gold was up twenty bucks on the futures to another new all time high. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates dropped. The XAU was up 3 2/3, while GDX added 3/4. Volume was average. I canceled my open order for the GDX October puts. I'll reconsider this idea tonight. GDX remains short term overbought. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX finished unchanged and the short term indicators are hanging around the mid-range level. Not sure what's next now for the VIX. More than the usual amount of uncertainty right now but the market continues higher. There is no overhead resistance. Liquidity doesn't seem to be a problem. It's a teflon market at the moment. Nothing sticks to it on the downside. Europe and Asia were higher with the exception of Japan. I'll keep watch on the overnight headlines.