Wednesday, May 22, 2024
Volatility made a return today but it wasn't to the extreme. The Dow fell 202 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is beginning to stall. The Fed minutes today were not what the market was looking for. Perhaps the NVDA earnings will provide a catalyst for the bulls after the bell. Despite todays selling the S&P 500 remains short term overbought. We are still in the camp of waiting for a decent signal before trying the SPY options again. Doubt that it will happen this week. Gold dropped over forty bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interst rates ticked up. The XAU fell 5 3/4, while GDX lost 1 1/2. Volume was heavy to the downside as traders headed for the exits. The short term indicators have now rolled over for GDX with room to go. However one of our other indicators here is already flashing a buy signal for GDX after todays decline. I'm inclined to wait for the daily chart to get down to oversold before trying the calls here for June. Sometimes things that go up fast come down fast too. We'll look at things overnight and take it from there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX did move up today but not as much as the intra-day volatility would suggest. It remains short term oversold although the indicators have slightly turned up. Just a couple of days left this week before a long holiday weekend. Pretty sure that we are going to let it pass before the next trade but you never know. The GDX calls will probably be the next trade idea. Europe was down and Asia mostly lower in last nights trade. On to Thursday.
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