Thursday, May 30, 2024
Another day, another decline as the Dow fell 330 points on almost average volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive though. The summation index is heading lower. The NASDAQ led things down today and that isn't a positive development. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are now mid-range or lower. Tomorrows reaction to the inflation data will go a long way towards telling the story of where we go from here. Either things fall apart or a bounce will occur. I certainly don't know which as the indices are pretty mixed at the moment. Todays positive breadth is a puzzler as well. We'll stay on the sidelines with regards to the SPY options for now. Gold was up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar and interest rates finished lower. The XAU was up 1 2/3, while GDX gained 1/3. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are starting to move sideways and could be putting in a bottom. I'm leaving the order for the GDX June calls out there. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX finished slightly higher today and is up against the upper Bollinger band. Some of the short term indicators on the VIX have reached the overbought level. This implies a lower VIX and higher stock prices but we'll wait and see. Asia was lower and Europe higher overnight. We'll see how the market reacts to Fridays data and close out the trading week.
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