Friday, May 31, 2024
Up, down and then way back up as the Dow gained 574 points on the last day of May. Volume was end of the month heavy. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is starting to move sideways. The inflation data came in where expected and after an initial pop at the open the market then sold off. Halfway through the session buyers stepped in to turn things around. Then in the final half hour the market took off like a rocket. End of the month squaring of positions? Short covering? Who knows but we were getting pretty oversold on a short term basis. Was it a one day bounce or is this the beginning of the next leg up? Always plenty of questions in this game. The Dow was the leader again and the NASDAQ posted a very small loss. However with the Dow up over five hundred points you would expect the NASDAQ to have some kind of gain on the day. So I'm not exactly sure what we are dealing with here. Gold was off $18 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates dropped. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. GDX is somewhat short term oversold but the indicators there still have room to move lower. My order for the June calls on GDX remains in effect. I'll reconsider what to do with it over the weekend. Gold down with interest rates moving lower doesn't fit either. Plenty of crosscurrents and mixed messages from the markets at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired. The VIX had a big drop today which fits with the Dow but certainly not the NASDAQ. The short term indicators here have turned back down. An interesting last day of the month to be sure. What it all means going forward is what we'll try and figure out over the weekend. I'll go over the charts as usual to try and come up with some type of game plan. Three weeks to go in the June option cycle so there's plenty of time to find the next trade. Asia was mixed and Europe slightly higher to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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