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Tuesday, May 14, 2024

Producer prices came in higher than expected and the market didn't care as the Dow rose 126 points on good volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is moving up. The NASDAQ led the way today and that's a plus. A market moving up on bad news usually wants to go higher going forward. Our sell signal did not work this time as sideways was all that happened. We deal in probabilities and not certainties in this game. Then today the market broke out higher. New all time highs seem like they are on deck and not a potential double top for the S&P 500. The S&P remains short term overbought and can stay that way longer than you think during rally phases. My prognosis of what would happen here has been wrong. I'll try and remain on the sidelines until I get a better idea of where we are going. Perhaps the positive options expiration week bias is stronger this time around. Whatever the case the market isn't doing what we anticipated. Gold was up $18 on the futures. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The dollar and rates moved exactly opposite of what you'd expect with a stronger inflation print. The XAU rose a couple bucks nad GDX added around 1/2. Volume was light. Still closer to short term overbought on GDX and there's been a lack of volume here lately. Probably will wait for the June option cycle before trying another trade here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was a bit lower today and remains short term oversold. I don't have any good ideas regarding the VIX right now. We'll get consumer inflation data tomorrow. Perhaps it will be like today and the market won't care. But it's hard to expect that to happen two days in a row. Retail sales out tomorrow as well. I'll simply have to watch and wait for the next opportunity as I haven't got a good feel for what's going on at the moment. Asia was generally higher and Europe mixed overnight. We see what the reaction is to tomorrows data and go from there.

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