Lower in a quiet session as the Dow fell 232 points on end of the month heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index continues to travel down. The Dow was the relative under performer today. Stocks remain under pressure as there are no reasons to be bullish at the moment. The S&P 500 was lower and is still short term oversold. It closed at the low of the day. Not sure when things will turn around. February ended with a thud. Gold was up ten bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were steady. The XAU was up almost a point while GDX added about 1/4. Volume continued light on this near term bounce for the gold shares. It is a very waek bounce to be sure. My GDX March calls are still losers and I probably should have just taken the loss today. The short term indicators for GDX have turned back up but without any type of conviction. I probably should be out of this trade this week because the calls I own are pretty far out of the money. Poor entry timing on my part. However the longer term buy signal that we got is finally starting to work but in a muted form. I suppose that is a byproduct of the lousy fundamental background here for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and that doesn't fit a down market. The short term indicators here are mid-range and now look like they want to turn back up. That would be bearish for stocks if it occurs. Perhaps we'll get some buyers for the start of March tomorrow or just more of the same selling. Asia was mixed and Europe lower in last nights trade. We'll see how things go tomorrow.

An uneven start to the new week as the Dow rose 72 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues down. We had a gap higher to start the day and spent the rest of the session drifting off. The NASDAQ was the leader moving higher today but the lack of volume is a concern. Not to mention that weak Monday rallies are not the most convincing. The S&P 500 remains short term oversold and I wouldn't be surprised if we were lower tomorrow. I would be surprised if we somehow build on todays slight gains. End of the month tomorrow but I'm not sure what effect that will have on things. Gold was up $7 on the futures. The US dollar was lower and interest rates moved slightly down. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on pretty light volume. The gold shares remain short term oversold. If this is the bounce we were looking for it can be descibed as anemic. There are no compelling reasons to be buying gold right now. My GDX March calls are still losers. Still hoping for a better bounce but hope is not a trading stategy. Will be looking to take the loss this week unless something out of the ordinary happens. Don't count on it. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today but remains above the 20 level and above its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators are pointing down and are at mid-range. That would imply a lower VIX and higher stock prices going forward. However whatever I have thought about the VIX has been wrong lately so we'll just have to wait and see where it goes from here. Not a lot of economic reports due out this week. I suppose that we'll see if we get any of the beginning of the month positive money flows. Asia lower and Europe higher to begin the week. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

Inflation data came in hot and the market sold off. The Dow fell 337 points on light volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ was the leader on the way down again. The was a gap lower on the S&P at the open and then it traded sideways from there. The short term indicators on the S&P are oversold and staying that way. It appears that lower prices are in its future. The S&P 500 also closed below the 3975 up trend line but just barely. Things will probably just get worse from here. Gold was off $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU fell a point and GDX lost 1/3. Volume was average. My GDX March calls are now solid losers. The only reason that I'm still holding them is that they do have 3 weeks to go. The gold shares have remained short term oversold on some of the indicators for 3 weeks. This is not what usually happens. Our other signal that has only showed up 4 times in the last 3 years has even moved lower and is even more oversold. So although we expect some kind of upside for the gold shares here it will most likely not be an extended rally. The bounce is long overdue but markets can stay overbought or oversold longer than you can stay solvent sometimes. Obviously this was a trade that should have been avoided. The entry timing was off and the gold shares have absolutely no interest at the moment from traders or investors. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was up today but finished off from its best levels. Not sure where the VIX goes from here. Haven't had a good handle on what is going on here with the VIX for a while. We'll go over the charts this weekend as usual but the plan for now is to still hold the GDX call trade until we see some kind of bounce. Hoping at this point to cut the loss to something reasonable but perhaps should have bailed out today and simply moved on. Europe and Asia were lower with the exception of Japan. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Stocks managed to move higher today as the Dow gained 108 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive. The summation index continues lower. We opened with a gap to the upside, then dropped to fresh new lows only to come back for the rest of the day and end in the plus. The NASDAQ led the way. The S&P 500 managed to hold the 3975 level for now. Tomorrow should tell us a lot. If we manage to build on todays gains the market might have a chance to hold in here. However if the inflation data comes in hot and we fall, then we'll most likely be in a prolonged decline. The market is short term oversold but today could have been the expected bounce. So we'll see what happens tomorrow and go from there. Gold lost $11 on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed and interest rates were mildly lower. The XAU dropped 1 1/4, while GDX shed 1/8. Volume was light. GDX remaining oversold here and not even getting a bounce is worrisome for my GDX March call trade. It is now showing a loss. GDX doesn't even have a hint of short covering or wanting to move higher despite the extremely oversold condition. Not sure what to make of it but it isn't the usual activity that we would expect. We'll see what transpires tomorrow but this trade could just blow up. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and back within the Bollinger bands. Its short term indicators have now rolled over. However that doesn't give us the all clear signal as the VIX remains above the 20 level and above its 50 day moving average. Asia was lower and Europe higher with the exception of the FTSE overnight. We'll see how the markets respond to tomorrows inflation data.

We saw continued selling today but not as drastic as on Tuesday. The Dow fell 84 points on average volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index is moving down. Kind of a mixed bag as the NASDAQ posted a small gain. The S&P 500 is trying to stay above the longer term up trend line that began in October and its 50 day moving average. I'm not sure if it will be successful. Short term oversold here now so I would be looking for at least some kind of bounce but maybe not the beginning of a sustained move higher. We've got more inflation data due out on Friday and that will probably tell the story for where we are going. The tone of the market is negative at the moment. Gold dropped $8 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were slightly lower. The XAU lost 2 1/4, while GDX was off 2/3. Volume was average. My open order for the GDX March calls was filled. They closed about where I purchased them. One of our longer term indicators for GDX is at a level that has produced a bounce or at least sideways movement when it has gotten as far oversold as it stands now. That is the primary basis for this trade. It should be a short term trade from here. NEM reports earnings tomorrow and that will influence GDX. I can't say I'm overly confident that this trade will work because the medium term indicators for GDX are not yet completely oversold. We'll see where it goes from here. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit a down market. The short term indicators for the VIX have stalled and are trying to roll over. Still above the 20 level here. Not sure what's next for the VIX. Europe and Asia were lower. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

The market got clobbered today coming in off of a long weekend. The Dow fell 697 points on average volume. The advance/declines were 7 to 1 negative. The summation index is heading down and we'll take our cues from there. The summation index was moving down when the S&P was trending sideways and in retrospect that was a clue. The NASDAQ led the way lower and that's a plus for the bears. The S&P 500 is short term oversold but some of the indicators have room to move lower. The up trend line that began last October is still intact there but now is in jeopardy. It comes in around 3975. Another day like today will take it out and then we'd see some real selling. Not sure if that will happen or not but my take on things lately has been wrong. Also not sure what would turn things positive in the near term so it may be a case of look out below. Gold was off $6 on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed about 1/3. Volume was light. I did place an order overnight for the GDX March calls but it wasn't filled. I'm leaving it open. I can't say that this is the best idea at the moment but one of the longer term indicators for GDX is almost at the point where we see a bounce or at least stop moving down. It has given 4 signals in the past 3 years and 75% of them saw a bounce. The other time the gold shares just moved sideways. We'll see if it gets filled. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked higher and is now above its upper Bollinger band. The short term indicators here are getting overbought but not completely just yet. Another day like today would do it. I'm not sure what to expect here. I suppose the question for tomorrow will be, will we see any buyers if the S&P hits that up trend line? Or will that just bring in more sellers as the rally that began last year is declared dead. The NYA has already broken that line. Always plenty of questions in this game. Europe and Asia were both lower to start the trading week. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

More selling in the broader market today but the Dow did manage a gain of 129 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is moving lower. The overall market was weaker than the Dow again with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The S&P 500 was down as well. The short term indicators here are pointing down and about at mid-range. The S&P did come up from the lows of the session but that may have been option expiration related. As we suspected there is no reason to get long in front of the long holiday weekend. Gold finished flat on the futures. The US dollar finished flat as well but interest rates ticked down to close the week. The XAU lost 1 2/3, while GDX shed 1/4. Volume was average. The gold shares came up from the lows of the session as well. Getting close to the 200 day moving average for GDX and the XAU bounced off of that level today. GDX remains short term oversold and staying there. Some indicators for GDX are at or approaching levels where we have at least seen a bounce before. However the fundamentals for gold remain negative at the moment. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today which doesn't fit with the overall market lower. Not sure what's going on here. The short term indicators are mid-range. I don't have a good feel for this indicator right now. Plenty of work to do over the long weekend as we will try and come up with a game plan going forward. It will be a short trading week coming up. We booked our first trade for the year this week and it was negative. Putting that in the rear view mirror and moving on. Europe and Asia were lower to close out the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Sellers took the upper hand today as the Dow fell 431 points on average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. The summation index continues lower. The NASDAQ led the way down. My thesis of higher prices this week did not pan out. My ideas have been wrong lately and I will have to turn that around. My take on the technical indicators is off so we'll remain on the sidelines for now. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now turned back down and are mid-range. So far all in all it has been a sideways week for the S&P. Not the usual price action for options expiration week. I'm not sure what's in store next for the stock market. Gold finished up a couple bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX finished little changed on light volume. They did come up from the lows of the session. GDX remains short term oversold which normally we'd be looking to get some GDX calls here. However after already failing with this idea via this weeks losing trade, we're remaining on the sidelines for now here too. There is a short term down trend line now in place on the daily chart for GDX. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX spiked up today and closed above the 20 level. The short term indicators here have either turned back up or are now moving sideways. Not sure what this means going forward. A holiday weekend is upon us after we get through expiration Friday tomorrow. Not sure what to expect but can't anticipate much buying before a long weekend with the way this week has gone so far. Europe and Asia were higher overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.

Onca again the data came in stronger than expected and we had an early morning sell off. Then just like yesterday the market spent the rest of the session making it back up. The Dow rose 38 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still trending lower. The overall market was gain stronger than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way. As long as the small stcoks are in the lead I think that we are in store for higher prices. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are moving sideways but trying to turn back up. We'll get some more inflation data tomorrow and that should get us going one way or the other once again. Only 2 days left in the February option cycle and ahead of a holiday weekend coming up. Gold lost $18 on the futures and closed below support at $1850. The US dollar was higher and interest rates were up slightly. The XAU fell 3 1/2, while GDX lost 7/8. Volume was average. The gold shares gapped down at the open and wiped out my GDX February calls. It was a 99% loss as this trade never got going the way we expected. GDX remains short term oversold and never got out of that condition as we thouhgt it would. Not a lot of money involved in this trade but starting the year with a loss is always disappointing. But you've got to move on. We will keep an eye on the gold shares but not expecting another trade there soon. Oversold and staying there is not positive. Mentally I'm feeling a bit down with a losing trade on the books. The short term trades can be big winners or big losers and we were on the losing side this time around. The VIX continued lower and that fits an up market. The short term indicators are heading lower and have more room to go down. I'm expecting higher stock prices into the close on Friday but we'll have to see the reaction to tomorrows inflation numbers. Asia was down and Europe up overnight. We'll see how it goes tomorrow.

It turned out to be a mixed bag on inflation day as the Dow fell 156 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is still moving down. Consumer prices came in a bit hotter than expected. The market sold off, came back with a rally and then sold off again only to rally the rest of the session until the final five minutes. It was really a back and forth type of day. Considering the data and potential for a sell off, the market held up pretty good today. The NASDAQ posted a gain and that is a surprise given the backdrop. The breadth wasn't as bad as it could have been either. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are still trying to make their mind up on which way to go. We'll get retail sales data tomorrow and we'll have to see what the market does with that. Things could still go either way here. Gold somehow was up a couple bucks on the futures after bouncing back and forth. The US dollar finished slightly lower and interest rates were up. The XAU and GDX had slight fractional gains on light volume. My GDX February calls are now losers with only 3 days to go in this months option cycle. GDX remains short term oversold and staying that way, which isn't helping my cause. We would need to see some type of rally from here for this trade to get back to break even. Not sure that is going to happen as interest in gold has waned. Will have to think about just taking the loss tomorrow. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and closed below the 20 level. The short term indicators here have turned back down. We got the drop in the VIX we were looking for but not the rise in stock prices to go along. Not sure what that means going forward. Running out of time in Februarys option cycle and decisions must be made. I suppose we'll see how things open tomorrow and go from there. Europe and Asia were generally higher in last nights trading. We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

Higher prices to begin option expiration week as the Dow rallied 376 points on pretty light volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 positive. The summation index is still moving down but another day like today would change that. The NASDAQ led the way higher and that's a plus. Not sure why we moved up so much in front of tomorrows CPI report but perhaps the market knows something we don't. Of course the light volume is troublesome. Short covering probably played a role today as well. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 are trying to turn back up. If that happens the rally will have legs. Of course it could all change tomorrow with a higher surprise from the consumer price numbers. All we can do now is wait. Gold dropped over $10 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates were steady. The XAU was off over 3/4, while GDX had a slight fractional mover lower. Volume was pretty light here but the gold shares held up rather well considering the metal lost ground today. Things should get moving on the CPI report tomorrow. My GDX February calls are still about at where I purchased them. 4 days to go for this trade and Tuesday will most likely be the key as to whether or not this trade succeeds. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was just a bit lower today and is still above the 20 level. The short term indicators here moved sideways today. The VIX did close below its 50 day moving average. I'm not getting a good feel for what will happen next for the VIX. My guess would be that it heads lower and stocks head higher. But I certainly don't know. All in all the thing to look for is the market reaction to tomorrows numbers. Asia was lower with the exception of China and Europe was up. We'll see what the market has in store for us tomorrow.

A mixed bag today as the Dow did manage a gain of 169 points on light volume. The advance/declines were slightly positive. The summation index continues down. The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the NASDAQ posting a loss. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have stalled their downside movement at a mid-range level. They could go either way from here. It seems as though the market is on hold in front of Tuesdays inflation numbers which no doubt will get things moving one way or the other. Not sure what to expect there. No SPY trades for the time being. Gold was off a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume. I did place another order for the GDX February calls and it was filled. So the first trade of the year is on. The entry looks to be OK depending on where we go from here. GDX remains short term oversold. I'll probably hold this trade into the inflation report and go from there. We'll also get retail sales data on Wednesday of next week. Mentally I'm feeling better and recovery is going well so far. The VIX spiked up during the session but ended up closing lower on the day. It is still above the 20 level. The short term indicators here are mixed but more overbought than oversold. The daily candlestick chart for the VIX has what looks like an evening star which would imply lower VIX readings going forward. That would be a plus for stocks. However the VIX did penetrate its upper Bollinger band. We'll see what that means going forward. Option expiration week coming up and we'll also see if it has the usual positive bias. But we'll be keeping a closer eye on gold and the gold shares as that is where our money is on the line at the moment. Plenty of work to do over the weekend with the charts and indicators. Europe and Asia were generally lower to finish the week. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

It was a one day reversal to the downside as the Dow opened higher and closed lower. The most watched index fell 249 points on average volume. The advance/declines were shy of 3 to 1 negative. The summation index is now trending lower. The NASDAQ led the way down but we did see a little buying in the final half hour. The short term indicators for the S&P 500 have now rolled over and have plenty of room to go lower. I am not sure why things have gotten weaker here. The short term up trend lines for the NASDAQ and the S&P remain intact but another day like today will violate them. IWM has already broken that short term line. Perhaps the rally that began in the beginning of the year has run its course for now. We'll know more after tomorrows price action. Gold fell $17 on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU dropped 2 1/2, while GDX lost 5/8. Volume was average. I did place an open order this morning for the GDX February calls but it wasn't filled. GDX remains short term oversold and has now closed below its 50 day moving average. There's only six days left in the February option cycle so any trade now carries a lot of risk. I will reconsider placing the order again overnight. Mentally I'm still in recovery mode from the recent illness but feel like I'm almost all the way back. The VIX was up today and closed above the important 20 level. It has stopped right at the 50 day moving average. The 50 day has contained the VIX since the rally that began in October. So it is important for the bulls that the VIX to turn back down here or we will have to adjust our thinking. It is not quite yet short term overbought but could get there tomorrow with a repeat of today. So we are at an important market juncture in my view. Europe was higher and Asia too for the most part. We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

Sellers took charge today as the Dow fell 207 points on lighter volume. The advance/declines were 2 to 1 negative. The summation index is tracking sideways. We spent the session in negative territory. The NASDAQ led the way lower. Up trend lines remain intact for both the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. The S&P is still short term overbought on the indicators. We're remaining on the sidelines for now with regards to trading the SPY. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures again. The US dollar was a bit higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU was off a buck and GDX shed 1/4. Volume was very light here. GDX is now short term oversold and holding above its 50 day moving average. This would seem to be the logical spot to try the GDX February calls. We'll consider it tonight. Mentally doing OK, not 100%. Trying to get back to normal but it takes time. The VIX was up today and that fits a down market. The short term indicators are heading higher and are at mid-range. The VIX remains below the 20 level and below its 50 day moving average which are good signs for the stock bulls. Still waiting on a big move here as the Bollinger bands converge. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights developments.

Volatility returned for a day as the Fed speak created some market gyrations. However when it was all said and done the Dow climbed 265 points on average volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is beginning to move sideways. A hawkish Chairman Powell sent stocks into a swoon mid day but buyers again appeared and drove prices higher for the rest of the session. Once again the NASDAQ led the way up just like it led the way down last year. But it's this year and as long as the over the counter issues are in the lead going higher there is plenty of liquidity for now. The S&P 500 had a good day and it appears that the next stop is 4200. It does remain short term overbought but that's not an issue during rallies. There seems to be plenty of bears around and that is a plus for the bullish cause. Not to mention that today the market shrugged off Powells remarks and zoomed higher. Again, it's the opposite of last year. Declines can be purchased for now. Gold was up a few bucks on the futures. The US dollar was a bit lower and interest rates ticked up. The XAU rose 1 1/2, while GDX gained 3/8. Volume was average. GDX is still holding at its 50 day moving average. We may consider the February calls there if they get cheaper. Mentally feeling OK but still on medication for now. No rush to trade as health is certainly more important. The VIX was lower, remains below 20 and the short term indicators are turning back down. It seems to continue to say that higher stock prices are coming. The Bollinger bands here are converging which implies that a big move is in the near future. Could it be a blast to the upside? Not sure but we'll certainly keep our eyes open. Europe and Asia finished mixed. We'll see if we get some upside follow through tomorrow.

Lower to kick off the new week as the Dow fell 35 points on almost average volume. The advance/declines were around 3 to 1 negative. This should start the summation index to turn sideways. The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ leading the way lower. The S&P 500 remains short term overbought but not at an extreme. Not sure what our next SPY trade will be. Still nine days to go in the February option cycle. Not a lot of economic data due out this week. However there will be plenty of Fed speak beginning with Chairman Powell tomorrow. We are still on the sidelines for now. Gold had a weak bounce of five bucks after last weeks carnage. The US dollar was higher along with interest rates. The XAU was off 1 3/8, while GDX had a slight fractional loss. Volume was light. GDX has broken its up trend line that began in the beginning of November. It is currently finding support at around 30, which is also where the 50 day moving average lies. I suppose if we get brave maybe we'll try the February calls here as GDX is now short term oversold. We'll see. Mentally I'm doing better but not all the way back yet. Health is improving but not near 100%. The VIX was higher today and the short term indicators here have turned up. However as long as the VIX remains below the 20 level we'll keep looking for higher stock prices going forward. The VIX is at 19 and change. Asia and Europe were lower with the exception of Japan. We'll see if Chairman Powell gets things going one way or the other tomorrow.

We did see some selling today but it could have been worse. The employment report had an upside surprise. However the tone of the market has changed and there seems to be plenty of money for equities at the moment. If this was last year we would have had a rout in stocks today. But it isn't last year and we have to adjust our expectations and trading plans accordingly. I am still in recovery mode from the emergency room visit on Wednesday but hopefully the blog will be back to normal on Monday. Do note that gold has gotten crushed in the last two sessions, including down over $50 today. I'll be resting over the weekend to try and get back to things next week.

At the hospital in the emergency room yesterday so I missed the Fed day reaction that was a jump to the upside for most indices. More gains today for the major indices but the Dow is lagging here. The leader is the NASDAQ and decidedly so. That is bullish going forward. The S&P 500 broke through its longer term down trend line and now the NASDAQ has followed with volume picking up. All signs are positive for the market at this point. The VIX staying below 20 is another plus. Declines can now be purchased as we will have to see how far things run up. Not sure where the liquidity is coming from but we'll enjoy the ride. I'm feeling under par to be sure and cannot do the usually more detailed blog today. I hope to be back closer to normal by next week. It goes without saying that if you can't give the market your full attention, there is no point in trying any trades. Health is my number one priority at the moment. The markets will always be there.