Friday, March 20, 2015
We closed out the week on a positive note as the Dow gained 168 points. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 positive and the volume was expiration heavy. Todays action should turn the summation index back to the upside. RUT is breaking out. If we can get TRAN to get above its recent highs, I think a decent rally will take place. But it hasn't happened yet. It was a good week for equities though and we'll see if we can build on it next week. Many of the major averages are on the cusp of new all time highs. GE was up a few cents on OK volume. My GE April calls are showing a slight loss. I'm not so sure that this trade was a good idea. Gold climbed $15 on the futures as the US dollar got whacked again. It was an interesting week for the dollar. Very volatile with wide swings. That sometimes happens at the end of a move. So perhaps the dollar rally will take a rest here. That could be supportive for gold. The XAU was up 2 points and GDX gained 2/3. Volume was light though. ABX was up 1/4 on average volume. One of the technical indicators here is overextended and says ABX is due for a rest. My ABX April calls have a small profit. I suppose I'll be holding them longer than expected. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Not a lot of economic data out next week and we have the Fed out of the way for now. I'm not sure what to expect next week but a grind higher would not be a bad thing. If the summation index can get moving to the upside, I'll become a lot more positive on the market. The short term technicals are getting close to overbought and the recent move higher has been very choppy. We'll keep an eye on things. GE needs to get going on the upside or my trade there will be a loser. Gold broke through a near term downtrend line today that has been in place since the start of the year. That is a positive. But it hasn't proved that this is the beginning of a multi-week rally yet. I did notice some volume coming into the gold shares. So perhaps there is a little interest for now. Follow through upside next week would be a good sign. Plenty of charts to look at over the weekend. For now it's Friday afternoon on the first day of spring. Time for a break.
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