Wednesday, March 04, 2015
Continuing lower as the Dow fell 106 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. Todays action should turn the summation index lower. Is this a cause for concern? It could be. Perhaps my read on what is going on here is wrong. The short term technicals for the major stock indices have turned down. We sold off strong at the start of the day and unlike previous days we did not make it all the way back. Perhaps the market action after the employment report will clear things up. The small stocks are showing better relative strength and that usually means that whatever this is, it isn't anything major. GE lost 20 cents on about the same volume as yesterday. Perhaps I have once again overstayed my welcome with the March calls here. The technical have rolled over here as well. I'll give it until Friday and then decide what to do. Gold fell another few dollars as the US dollar had a strong session. The XAU lost 1 1/8 and GDX fell another 1/3. Volume was light as the interest in gold has waned. Patience is still required here for the long side. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Volatility has picked up in the past couple of sessions but I don't think it is anything to be concerned about yet. How the rest of the week plays out will be important to the near term outlook. I think tomorrow will be a waiting game but I thought that yesterday as well. I suppose I just don't have a good handle on things at the moment. The technical indicators are pointing to lower prices but I don't think that it will be a rout. I really think we are going to start to grind back to the upside. GE is going to have to hold the 25.50 level for me to stay positive there. But perhaps the run is over for GE now. It is certainly a possibility. We'll see if the foreign markets follow the US lower and prepare for tomorrow.
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