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Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Heading lower and picking up steam as the Dow fell 292 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were about 3 to 1 negative.  I must admit that I don't have a handle on what's going on here.  We are already at the level on the S&P 500 that I thought would hold.  But it doesn't look like that is going to happen.  The short term technical indicators have rolled over for the major stock indices.  They are not oversold yet.  We also closed on the low for the day and that is bearish.  The small stocks got crushed as well.  The summation index should now be heading lower.  So we'll see what happens but my bullish stance looking for new highs is in question.  GE took a hit as well.  It lost 1/3 on average volume.  I considered selling my GE April calls for a loss today.  Maybe I'll have to do that tomorrow.  Unless we see a complete turnaround tomorrow, this trade is dead.  Gold was up $5 on the futures as the US dollar fell again.  The XAU lost a point and GDX fell 1/4 as the gold shares followed stocks lower.  ABX was flat on the session and the volume was average.  This trade is still showing a profit.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  What I think that I'm seeing here is a lack of buying.  There is no catalyst to own stocks after the push from the Fed announcement.  The action in TRAN looks bearish as it approaches its 200 day moving average.  If that doesn't hold then the look of things would change significantly.  Both the Dow and the S&P 500 are at the uptrend lines that began last October.  A break tomorrow would not be a good sign. So things need to be watched closely here.  The GE April call trade probably needs to be sold tomorrow.  I cannot afford to spend the mental capital on a slow moving, losing trade.  It should have been sold today.  Gold has had a nice bounce.  But with the gold shares showing poor relative strength the past couple of days, it isn't exactly a bullish scenario.  ABX held up today but tomorrow, who knows?  We'll see if the overseas markets tank tonight as well.  Tomorrow will be an important session.   

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