Tuesday, March 03, 2015
Some downside today as the Dow fell 85 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. Now we are getting churned as the market decides what it is going to do. I don't think that this is the beginning of anything big on the downside. Or even a so called correction. There aren't any major negative divergences that I see. But as always, I could be wrong and often am. That said, Fridays employment report reaction will most likely be the most telling event. There was much made of the NASDAQ reaching 5000 again yesterday, so I'm sure that led to some of the selling today. The technical data for the stock averages is mixed. GE dropped 1/4 on light volume. The weekly chart still shows room for upside but this trade maybe needs to be exited sooner rather than later. The daily RSI got very overbought and now is dropping. How GE reacts from here is key. My GE March call trade is still in the black but took a hit today. Gold was a bit lower on the futures today and the US dollar didn't do much. The XAU was off 1 1/2, while GDX lost 1/3. Volume was light here. Patience is required if you want to trade the long side in gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Does the market have another leg up here? That is the question. I believe so but it hasn't happened yet. I think we'll be in a waiting mode until Friday morning. That's a guess as usual. Technically some of the short term indicators have started to roll over but not dramatically so. I think that we can grind higher here. We do have the Feds beige book on tap tomorrow. That could provide some movement. But really, until the employment report, I don't expect a lot of action. So we'll see. I'll be watching to see if the foreign markets follow the Dow lower overnight.
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