Friday, August 08, 2014
We finally got a rally today as the Dow soared 185 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 3 to 1 positive. The McClellan oscillator is heading back towards the zero line. Can it make it through there is the question. In negative markets the rallies come quick out of nowhere. Today qualifies for that. The light volume also is telling. I'll look for a 50% retracement of this decline to purchase some September OEX puts. This may or may not be the proper outlook going forward but it is the idea at the moment. Perhaps there will be a positive bias for expiration week. GE was up over 1/8 and the volume was light here as well. If we make it back to 26 or close to it, I'll try the September puts here as well. Holding onto the 50 week moving average for now. Gold was off a touch on the futures as the US dollar was lower as well. The XAU rose 1/8 but finished well off of the highs. ABX and NEM were up 1/4, while GG fell 1/4. Volume was light. My October ABX calls are now slightly in the black. Gold had a positive week but we'll need to see it build on that to really get bullish. I get the feeling it could be just sideways action coming up. But what do I know? My guesses haven't been all that good lately. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The major stock indices managed a decent bounce today. The markets were very oversold and due for something to the upside. It has all the looks of short covering to me. I certainly hope it continues next week because I am still a believer in the September put idea. But anything can happen in this game. There is an extra week in the September option cycle and that will add to the cost of trying September trades. Gold and silver have gone opposite ways of late and that isn't really bullish. Gold is now short term overbought with silver just the opposite. It would be much more bullish if they rose in tandem. The gold shares remain in a trading range. Plenty of time for the October calls to work here but it may take a while to really get going. And they could get going in either direction as well. So on it goes. I'll be checking signs from the various media outlets to see the reaction to todays positive market action. The ideal scenario for the bearish cause would be an indication that all is well. There's plenty of charts to check over the weekend. However the game plan for the September puts remains the same. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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