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Thursday, August 14, 2014

The upward push of the market continues as the Dow gained 61 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The S&P 500 is right at the 1955 level and also poised at its 50 day moving average.  The volume has been light all the way up and I think that this rally is not going to last.  However, the September OEX puts I bought yesterday have already lost 35% of their value, so I sold them today and took the loss.  I then repurchased some September OEX puts at a closer to the money strike price for less than what I paid for the options yesterday.  If the trade does work as expected, the loss taken today will more than be made up due to the closer to the money strike price of todays option purchase.  If the trade doesn't work, it will amount to about the same loss that holding onto the September puts that I sold for a loss today would have had.  The stock indices closed at their highs today which is bullish.  Plus the small stocks are leading the way.  So perhaps my idea of getting some index puts is completely wrong.  The summation index is heading higher now as well.  GE was up a nickel and the volume was light.  The September puts I own here are showing a small loss.  Gold was flat on the session as was the US dollar.  These markets are in a summer doldrums pattern for this week so far.  The XAU fell 1 1/4.  ABX and NEM were flat, while GG fell 1/4.  Volume was pretty light.  Nothing new to report here as we wait for the next catalyst.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll close out option expiration week tomorrow.  We are in a light volume rally so far this week.  Light volume rallies cannot be trusted.  I do still believe that we will soon be rolling over and that we will also be taking out the recent lows in the major stock indices.  I could be wrong and often am.  The gold market is going nowhere at the moment.  Patience is required but we are going to move pretty good one way or the other soon.  The Bollinger bands on the daily chart are telegraphing that.  So we'll see.  As always we'll watch the overseas overnight action and take it from there.

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