Monday, August 11, 2014
Higher today but not by much for the Dow as it gained 16 points on light volume. The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive. The overall market was stronger than the Dow. Getting a decent move up for now as today could turn around the summation index. I'm still a believer in the September OEX puts though. I plan on getting them this week on more strength if we see any as the week progresses. The ideal scenario in my mind would to get to the 1950 level on the S&P 500. We'll have to see how the week plays out. GE was up 1/8 on summer average volume. We did get to the $26 level today and I did get some September GE puts when we got there. Plenty of time for this trade to work and it fits in with my bearish prognosis. Gold didn't do much today and neither did the US dollar. The XAU managed a gain of 1 1/8. ABX was flat, while GG and NEM had fractional gains. Volume was light. The October ABX calls that I have are slightly in the black. Holding on for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm going to try and be patient when attempting to get the September OEX puts this week. But I don't want to be late either. It is a tough game to play. Of course I could be wrong in my thinking and the stock indices simply rally from here. However I am looking for more downside as the summer ends and we roll into September. The short term technicals are still oversold for the major stock indices. On thing in the bulls favor though is the out performance recently of the small stocks. So it is a difficult call to make one way or the other. Gold has been lacking a trend for a month. We are in a good seasonal period but that doesn't always mean a rally will be coming. At least today the gold shares found some buyers but it wasn't a huge move. The foreign stock markets have started to bounce so perhaps the US stock indexes will keep pace. There should be an opportunity this week to get set up in the September puts, hopefully. We'll keep an eye on the overnight action and go from there.
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