Thursday, August 21, 2014
Still moving basically straight up as the Dow gained 60 points on light volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index continues higher. The S&P 500 hit a new all time high today. Overbought and staying that way. I'm still over leveraged in the September OEX puts. This idea has done nothing but fail since I started taking positions. At the rate the market is going, it will be one of my biggest losers. There is nothing to suggest that the stock market is going to head lower. Still over four weeks left in this option cycle but the main players won't return until after Labor day. The things that I thought would cause lower prices are not happening. GE was up a few cents and the volume was light. The September puts that I have here are nearly worthless. Another failed trade for now. Gold finally got whacked as the futures fell about $20. We are now below the important $1280 level. We will have to see how the week closes out tomorrow. The US dollar was slightly lower today. The XAU was off 2 1/8. ABX shed 1/4, GG down 1/8 and NEM lost 7/8. Volume picked up to the downside and that is not a good sign for the bulls. The gold shares haven't broken down out of the nearly two month consolidation yet. But they do appear to be on the verge of doing so. I'm still holding on to the October ABX calls although they have lost half of what I paid for them. My thinking is that sooner or later the positive seasonal factors will kick in. Looks like later if at all. Mentally I'm feeling tired, not enough sleep and dental problems. Stocks are very overbought and I am leveraged to the downside. This is not a good place to be. My thinking has been atrocious and my trading tactics have been wrong. The market does not care. Perhaps I am just too stubborn in my attempts to trade here. With the summation index continuing to the upside, the only smart play is to be long. As always, I will pay for my errors. Gold broke down today and it appears poised to head even lower. The gold shares are out performing but in this environment it only means they aren't going down as far. There are still a couple of months for the ABX trade to work but at this rate it won't. When everything is going wrong perhaps it is best to take a step back. I'll consider this overnight. We'll close out the week tomorrow.
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