Monday, August 04, 2014
Bounce expected and it arrived on cue. The Dow rose 75 points on summer average volume. The advance/declines were less than 2 to 1 positive. If you were good enough, you could have gotten the August OEX calls at around 8AM and sold them for a nice profit before the close. I, as has been the case lately, wasn't quick enough. We'll have to see how far this bounce goes but the summation index is still heading lower. I'm going to have to focus on the OEX September puts and maybe leave it at that. The short term technicals for the major stock indices remain oversold. GE was off a few cents and the volume was average. No trades in GE for now but I still am considering the idea for the calls of early next year. Plenty of time to purchase though. Gold was off over $5 on the futures. The US dollar didn't move much today. The XAU lost around 1 1/8. ABX and GG had fractional losses, while NEM rose 3/8. Volume was good for NEM, light for the others. My October ABX calls remain in the red. There was some major volume in the October option cycle for ABX. The 18 strike price had over 10000 contracts traded on both sides. The 19 strike price had over 20000 contracts traded on the call side. I don't know what to make of it but somebody is betting big here. Mentally I'm feeling OK considering I just missed another trading opportunity. At least the idea worked, even if I didn't make any money off of it. I'm a believer that rallies can be shorted now. I'll be looking for an entry point on the September OEX puts. Of course as always I could be wrong here and the decline has run its course. But I'm not really thinking that will be the case. Gold is hanging around its 50 and 200 day moving average. The gold shares have under performed near term and that isn't bullish. The short term technicals for the gold shares are oversold though. Plenty of time for the October call trade to work. Seasonal factors are in the positive camp as well. We'll keep an eye on the foreign markets overnight and go from there. Not a lot of economic data out this week so it may get quiet.
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