Friday, November 09, 2007
Well the expected rally never materialized as the Dow fell another 223 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were over 2 to 1 negative. We had an upside reversal yesterday on extremely heavy volume. If we can't rally off of that then we are in trouble. It seems like a rerun of August as the market continues to decline. Once again there is something going on that can't be explained technically. When an oversold market doesn't rally then we are in collapse mode. I fortunately did not but any calls because the market did not act the way it should of this morning. Gold lost a couple bucks and the XAU fell 2 3/4. NEM hung in there and didn't drop much but ABX lost 3/4. Yes I'd like to short the gold shares but we should get some type of bounce next week and the timing has to be practically perfect. And that is the main problem with any type of trade at the moment. There are 5 days left before expiration. The volatility keeps the options pricey. But the time decay factor will be enhanced as we move forward next week. Options will continue to lose value at a rapid rate if the market does not move in the intended direction. It isn't going to be easy. GE lost 3/4 on average volume. What can I say, the trend is down. We are nearing the weekly up trend line and that will be the key. Will it hold? Doesn't look like it today but next week is a different story. Mentally I slept OK but markets like this take a toll. I've said it before but preservation of capital is important in times such as these. The market isn't acting normally and that has to be taken into consideration. That said there will be money to be made next week. But I probably will not attempt any trades unless the set-up is pretty clear. I still would like to get short before the inflation data but if we don't get a rally of some type before then I will stay on the sidelines. Longer term if the GE options look cheap I will step in. But it's a dangerous market at the moment. Charts will be checked over the weekend. For now it's time for a break...
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