Monday, November 05, 2007
The Dow was lower by 51 points today. Volume was heavy again and the advance/declines were over 3 to 1 negative. We were down well over 100 at one point, made it back to positive territory and fell back again. The summation index is pointing down but the McClellan oscillator is getting oversold. I'm guessing we could bounce here. The line in the sand is 1490 for the S&P 500. It held again today but if it fails we will be heading lower. Gold was up a couple bucks and the XAU fell a point. ABX and NEM were both up on good volume. I would love to get some puts here but I've been saying that for weeks. At some point the run in gold will falter. Boeing was all over the place and ended up around a quarter. The trouble here is that it never rallies with the market and the options are running out of time. I should dump the options this week regardless. Again, the option price movement is beyond me, it isn't close to conventional even for options. GE lost a little ground on light volume. I still like the longer term calls here but am not looking to purchase them just yet. Mentally I'm doing OK. Less then 2 weeks now for November options and next Monday is a bank holiday. My thinking is that the inflation numbers will be strong next week so I would like to be short for that. Until then, who knows? We have gotten some dramatic 300+ point down drafts with the last few weeks which keeps everyone on edge. But I believe we will hold up here for now. The market had a chance to sell off in the last hour and it came all the way back instead. That usually isn't the type of action you see when the market wants to go down. So we'll see.
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