Monday, November 19, 2007
The downtrend continues with the Dow off 218 points on heavy volume. Advance/declines were 5 to 1 negative. How much longer? Hard to say. There's really no support for the OEX until around 620 where the next weekly up trend line is. But it's possible that we could hold in around here where the low from August is. Summation index still pointing down but we are oversold ans I would expect a bounce soon. You remember that 300+ point up day last week? In bear markets, rallies spring from nowhere but they don't hold. That's what just happened. Gold lost around $9 and the XAU dropped over 8 points. The long gold trade is unwinding. ABX was down over 2 bucks on heavy volume and NEM fell around a buck as well. ABX led the gold shares higher and it is leading them lower. There is talk that the US dollar is stabilizing. We'll see. GE lost 40 cents on average volume. It actually held up pretty well considering. If it gets to $37 I'll think about getting some calls. That's the target for now. If it doesn't hold there then the market is in for much bigger trouble then I expect. Mentally I feel fine. Got a good nights sleep and just went for a pretty good hike. My mind feels clear at the moment. There is an extra week on the December option cycle so there is no hurry to do anything without a pretty good signal. The options are full of time premium. I think we''ll see a bounce sometime this week, after that we'll have to see what happens...
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