Thursday, November 15, 2007
The Dow dropped another 120 points today on still heavy volume. Advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. The inflation number was a bit higher then expected. The market held up early and then fell off the remainder of the day. We could not build off of the 300+ point up day on Tuesday. It's not a good sign. The summation index is still pointing down. I suppose we will try and hold Mondays lows at 670 on the OEX. I'm thinking that we will hold for now but that is a guess. Gold got rocked to the downside, off $27. ABX and NEM both lost over 2 bucks on heavy volume. The XAU lost 8 1/2. I will be looking to short any snap back rally that we get there. I'm a longer term believer in the gold shares but they got way overdone to the upside here. I think the dollar will have to stop falling here as well. It is and has been oversold for quite a long time. GE lost 70 cents on average volume. I'm in no rush to get long there just yet. We may have another buck or so to the downside to go there. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I was able to keep myself out of trouble so far this week. I'm getting a better feel for what is going on here although the credit problems are something that I don't know exactly what is happening. But it looks like neither does anyone else. Anything can happen on expiration Friday, so on the sidelines I'll stay. Next week should be holiday slow so there is no reason to start any new trades unless a very valid signal appears. We'll go from there...
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