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Wednesday, January 21, 2026

Back to the upside today as we enter a whipsawed world for now. The Dow gained 588 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were shy of 4 to 1 positive. The summation index is heading back up. Now we won't have new tariffs as we are at the mercy of the next headline or sound bite. It makes the trading environment even tougher than it already is. We are not thinking that this is the end of the world as the market is in a seasonal good period for stocks. The fact that the TRAN has recently reached a new all time closing high to finally follow the Dow is longer term plus. On a shorter term basis some of the indicators for the S&P 500 have turned back up. Options premiums remain high. Still waiting on a decent signal for the next trade. However at the moment you've got to take profits when you get them because of the increase in volatility. Gold was up $58 on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates dipped just a bit. The XAU was down five points, while GDX dropped 1 1/2. Volume was good. Gold up and the gold shares down isn't bullish. GDX remains short term overbought. I would think that a short term trade with the GDX February puts might work here. However with the current unabated strength in gold right now it may not be worth the risk. We'll look at it tonight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX dropped today and that fits the upside in stocks. The short term indicators here moved lower and some already have made it down to mid-range. It makes it appear that yesterdays decline was simply a one day wonder. Time will tell on that. Europe and Asia finished mixed overnight. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

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