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Thursday, January 29, 2026

Volatility made a comeback today but the Dow managed a gain of 56 points on very heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is still tracking sideways. The NASDAQ led the way down for most major indices but came up from the lows of the session. The S&P 500 was down over 100 points during the day but came back to post only a small loss. Most of its short term indicators remain overbought. Not sure what to expect next here as the short term sell signal that we received may have run its course after todays price action. The option premiums for SPY remain elevated. Gold got whipped around like the stock market today but the futures ended with a gain of $80. The US dollar closed a bit lower as did interest rates. The XAU fell over 14 points and GDX lost 4 1/2. Volume was extremely heavy here on a one day downside reversal. My open order for the GDX February puts didn't get filled and I adjusted it a couple of times early this morning to no avail so I canceled the order. The premiums for the GDX puts did not go lower even when GDX itself was making new highs. That usually never happens but it was a tip off that the market makers knew something that we didn't. The short term indicators remain overbought for GDX. I still like the idea of the February puts for GDX but will wait to see if it trys to reach the near term highs again. As I have said before both gold and silver have gone parabolic and that condition cannot last. There's plenty of time left in the February option cycle with three weeks to go. Might place another open order for the GDX February puts overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but again retreated from the best levels on the session. The short term indicators here are turning up. Once again I'm not sure where this indicator goes next. Asia was higher and Europe little changed with the exception of the DAX which lost 2%. End of the month tomorrow.

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