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Friday, February 28, 2025

We finally got the overdue bounce today as the Dow climbed 601 points on pretty heavy volume. The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive. The summation index is trying to stop moving down. Stocks were going nowhere until deciding to take off in the afternoon. The inflation data came in where expected. The NASDAQ led the way up today and that is a plus. However today is what we were looking for as a big rally came out of nowhere. It certainly doesn't mean that the decline is over in my view but it could be. Options premiums are still high for the SPY but I am looking to buy the March puts at some point next week. The short term indicators for the S&P have turned back up. I do not think that they will get to overbought before turning lower again. Gold fell $32 on the futures. The US dollar was higher and interest rates continued to fall. The XAU and GDX had fractional gains coming up from their lows on the day as they followed the overall market higher. I did place an order for the GDX March calls overnight but it wasn't filled. My hope is that the gold shares will fall again with the overall market and we'll get another chance at this idea. It now looks like support for the gold futures comes in at $2800. That would be the spot to try the gold share calls. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX made it above 22 today only to fall back below the 20 level by the close. Some of the short term indicators are heading lower. Not sure where the VIX is heading next but I do not think that the decline in stocks is over. I could be wrong. It was quite a volatile week and there will be plenty of work to do going over the charts this weekend. We did get the bounce we were looking for in a very oversold market today. Will it have any staying power going into next week? Always plenty of questions in this game. Asia was down and Europe barely higher to finish the week overseas. It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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