Wednesday, February 26, 2025
Another mixed bag today as the market tried to rally early in the session only to sell off once again. The Dow fell 188 points on good volume. The advance/declines were even. The summation index continues to trend lower. The NASDAQ managed a small gain while the S&P 500 finished flat. As much as I prefer the SPY puts, we do have a buy signal on one of our short term indicators. Some of the short term indicators for the S&P are oversold but not all. Tomorrows price action will most likely depend on the reaction to the NVDA earnings report released today after the bell. I'm thinking that perhaps any weakness tomorrow could be bought for a short term trade but I'm not sure I want to try that ahead of Fridays inflation data. But I can certainly make a case for getting some SPY March calls for a short term trade. Gold was up a dozen today on the futures. The US dollar was slightly higher and interest rates a bit lower. The XAU climbed 3 points and GDX added 1/2. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are trying to turn around after not reaching short term oversold. I would like to try the GDX calls at some point during the March option cycle. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was lower today and remains below the 20 level. The short term indicators are trying to roll over. If successful that would fit with a bump higher for stocks which would make buying the SPY calls here the right idea. But they haven't turned around completely just yet. The daily candlestick chart here certainly looks like a top has formed on the VIX but markets go where they want. We also have to gauge the tone of the market here and it has definately changed to negative. We don't know the reasons but the markets always know more than we do. Europe was up and Asia generally higher overnight. I'll keep an eye on tonights developments.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment