Tuesday, February 25, 2025
A mixed picture today as the Dow rose 159 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were positive. The summation index is trending lower. Both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 posted losses on the session with the NASDAQ once again leading the way down. The market did manage to finish up from the lows on the day though. Due for some kind of bounce tomorrow in my humble opinion. The S&P is now below its 50 day moving average. The short term indicators here are mixed as some are oversold and some aren't. We have also seen a lot of put buying recently so on a contrarian basis a move higher would not be out of the question. Our dilemma is to figure out if any buying is sustainable or just a bounce. I'm still thinking about the SPY March puts but we may have to wait in order to purchase them. Gold dropped $38 on the futures but came up form the lows on the day like the overall stock market. The US dollar was lower along with interest rates. The XAU was off 2 1/4, while GDX shed about 2/3. Volume was average. The short term indicators for GDX are heading lower with room to go. The daily candlestick chart here has the potential of putting in a bottom today but potential is not fact. Still above the 50 day moving average here. I do like the idea of the GDX calls but am not sure of the entry timing. I will try and wait for the indicators to reach oversold and that could take some time. I do believe that there is till an appetite for gold. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX was higher today but did finish back below the 20 level. The daily candlestick chart here looks like it wants to turn around and head lower. The short term indicators are not yet completely overbought. The VIX is in the vicinity of where it has turned around in recent behavior. That would put a floor on stocks here if the recent behavior continues. Always plenty of questions in this game. Europe finished mixed and Asia generally lower last night. We'll see what tomorrow brings.
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