Monday, February 24, 2025
The market tried to rally today but failed as the Dow rose 33 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were slightly negative. The summation index is heading lower. The overall market was down with the NASDAQ dropping 1 1/4%. The S&P 500 dipped around thirty points. The short term indicators here are heading lower with some already oversold. I'd like to try the SPY March puts here but the market may not give us a chance. The NASDAQ leading the way down here is a big negative in my view. NVDA earnings are out after the bell on Wednesday which should move things one way or the other with some gusto. There is inflation data due out on Friday. I suppose we'll wait and see if there is some kind of bounce this week and try to get the puts if that happens. Gold was up a dozen on the futures. The US dollar finished little changed as did interest rates. The XAU rose 1 1/8 and GDX inched up over 1/8. Volume was light. The short term indicators for GDX are getting to mid-range and beginning to stall. I still like the GDX March call idea but don't know if it will turn around here or wait until it gets fully oversold. If stocks continue to drop the gold shares could follow. The trading is never easy. I'll reconsider this trade overnight. Mentally I'm feeling OK. The VIX got above the 20 level today but then pulled back. The short term indicators here are getting to overbought but are not there yet. The VIX closed above its upper Bollinger band so a move lower tomorrow for it would not be out of the question. That would be a boost for stocks. However the tone of the market has changed here and it appears that sellers have the upper hand for now. Asia finished lower and Europe was mixed to begin the final week in February. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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