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Friday, April 26, 2019

A positive day to end the week as the Dow gained 81 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The NASDAQ and the S&P 500 closed at record highs as we thought they might.  There is no overhead resistance which is a plus but the volume wasn't all that spectacular.  Not to mention the persistent overbought technical condition which at some point will turn around.  But for now we'll enjoy the grind higher.  GDP was much better than expected which helped move things along.  Earnings were mixed but did not provide a reason to wholesale sell.  RUT looks like it is about to push through its overhead resistance and that would be bullish.  GE was up almost 1/2 on average volume.  Gold found some buyers today despite the better than expected GDP number.  The precious metal futures added around $10, while the US dollar dropped a bit.  The XAU rose two points and GDX gained 3/8.  Volume was average.  Half my GDX calls are showing a small profit while the other half have a decent loss.  Still an overall loser for now.  GDX did hold up where it had to on the weekly chart though and that is a plus.  The up trend line from last year is still intact.  A positive week next week would further strengthen the bullish case here and that's what I'm looking for.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX continues to move sideways below its 50 day moving average.  As long as that condition persists, higher prices are in the cards.  If we can get some of the other major stock indices besides the S&P and the NASDAQ to break out, we could see a nice rally into the May expiration.  Hasn't happened yet but the possibility is there.  Interesting move higher for gold today despite the better than expected GDP report.  That certainly did not fit my expectations of the reaction to that report.  I'm not exactly sure what to make of it but we all know that the market will go where it wants.  I'm looking for GDX to hopefully bet back to the 22 level next week and then we'll see what things look like from there.  This seems to be a trade that cannot be overstayed since the entry was so poor.  Asia was mixed again with Europe generally higher to finish out the week overseas.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

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