Monday, April 22, 2019
Another meandering session as the Dow fell 48 points on light volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is now tracking lower. The overall market was stronger than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 higher. The S&P also had a one day reversal to the upside as it opened with a gap lower and finished the day higher. RUT continues lower and remains a drag on the overall bullish scenario. I guess we'll just have to remain patient for a catalyst to get things moving again one way or the other. GE was off a few cents on average volume. Gold and the US dollar didn't do much today. However the gold shares continue to tumble. The XAU lost 1 1/4, while GDX shed another 1/3. Volume remains slightly above average to the downside. Gold hasn't moved yet the gold shares are losing value and that's bearish. I did however purchase some GDX May calls at a lower strike price today. We are at the last line in the sand for GDX at the 21 level. Major support here from multiple sources, so if it doesn't hold up now we're heading much lower. Todays calls along with the ones I got last week are in the red. Mentally I'm feeling OK. Most major stock averages remain overbought with the exception of RUT. I'm still in the camp of new all time highs for the S&P in the coming days or weeks despite the overbought conditions. The VIX remains very low and I don't see a big drop in the market with that fact. But I could be wrong. There's always a chance that something comes out of nowhere. earnings are the story now and there haven't yet been any real big surprises either way. I've taken my chance here with the gold shares and there's 4 weeks in the May option cycle. An end to the decline this week is what I'm looking for. Asia was mixed and Europe generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on tonights headlines and take it from there.
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