Wednesday, April 17, 2019
Another day of just milling around as the Dow lost 3 points on average volume. The advance/declines were negative. The summation index is trending sideways. A lackluster expiration week so far and tomorrow should be no exception. Traders will probably be leaving early for a long holiday weekend. RUT was lower today and could potentially have a double top in place. All the major stock indices remain short term overbought. I did expect some type of rally this week but all we've gotten is a light volume sideways affair. Perhaps everyone is already on vacation. GE was off a couple cents on light volume. Gold was flat on the day and the US dollar finished little changed as well. The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume. My GDX May calls are in the red as my entry time wasn't good. Today GDX hit 21.5 and that is the line in the sand for the sideways consolidation. Today would have been a better day to purchase the calls. We are now short term oversold on GDX. If we do break 21.5, the next support is at 21. I may have to sell this trade and take the loss now because if we go down to 21 the trade will not make it back. It looks like I'm early here and the 21 level would be the next logical spot to take a chance on the calls. However if the sideways consolidation holds up, then the trade has a chance to work. It is all probabilities and timing. Mentally I'm feeling OK. We'll get some noise out of Washington tomorrow, not sure how or if it will affect stocks. I'm now of the opinion that it's been a pretty muted option expiration week with no fireworks this time around. Let's just get through tomorrow and then be back at it next week. Europe and Asia were generally higher overnight. We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.
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