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Monday, October 13, 2014

Continuing lower as the Dow fell 223 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were only 2 to 1 negative though.  The summation index is still moving lower.  We finished near the lows of the session again and that's not a positive.  But the small stocks held up relatively better.  My October OEX puts are showing good profits.  Only four days to go in the October option cycle.  I will have to sell them soon.  However the market is in free fall.  I think it could go on for a couple of more days but I could be wrong.  Oversold and staying that way for the stock indices and that is not bullish.  GE was off 1/3 and the volume was good.  GE helped lead the way lower.  Earnings due on Friday.  I'm looking at the March calls here.  Gold found buyers again as the futures rose $8.  The US dollar was lower today.  The XAU gained 1 1/4 but was higher early on.  ABX was flat, while GG and NEM were up 1/3.  All were higher during the trading day.  Volume was around average.  I'm looking at the January calls here, perhaps with NEM.  However it's possible I may just step aside and not do anything.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Volatility has shot up and that makes the trading tougher than usual.  The technicals are oversold on the major stock indexes.  It is really getting dicey.  Almost 100 S&P 500 points lower in three trading sessions.  I don't know how low this will go but we kind of need to see a blow out downside session to put an end to it.  Was that today?  Hard to tell with a moderately negative A/D line.  I'd still advise caution for now.  Gold may be trying to find a bottom here and the gold shares as well.  But the fundamentals for the precious metals really haven't changed and they aren't positive.  Earnings due out at the end of the month foe the gold shares.  But I suppose the focus is now on the stock indices and how much longer the decline will last.  The 200 day moving average was taken out today on the S&P 500.  A 10% correction here would take us to the 1800 level.  I don't know if that will happen.  We do seem to be going straight down at the moment.  It was a partial holiday today and all the world markets will be back at it tomorrow.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas action and see what happens tomorrow.

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