Monday, October 06, 2014
A flip flop session and a slight one day reversal to the downside as the Dow fell 17 points on average volume. The advance/declines were barely negative. Although we have a bullish candlestick formation on the daily S&P 500 chart, I still think things could go either way. The summation index has not turned around to the upside yet. This week should be pivotal for market direction. The small stocks were relatively weaker today also. We are still right at the down trend line beginning in mid-September for the major stock indices. A break through this line will be the all clear signal. If not, lower prices are coming. GE was off almost 20 cents on average volume. Still below the 50 and 200 days moving averages here. Gold found some buyers as the US dollar has its worst session in months. The precious metal futures were up $14 and back above $1200. The XAU rose 1 1/4. ABX barely was higher, while NEM and GG added 1/2. Volume was OK for the gold shares. I said that I would not trade the gold shares again this year and that is probably what I will do. However if I do see a divergent set-up here eventually, I might give them another try. Just as the US dollar had a parabolic run up, gold has has a precipitous drop. But as usual, one day doesn't make a trend. Mentally I'm feeling OK. I'm still holding my October OEX puts and they are still showing a profit. The only reason to continue to hold them here I've already spelled out. But let us not forget that we are practically at the zero line in the summation index. This doesn't happen very often. If we break the zero line here the market will go into free fall. I'm not saying that will happen but the chance is there and it rarely is. This week should tell. No reason for the drop in the dollar and the rise in gold today. One has been overbought for an extended period and the other just the opposite. The markets move where they want. The gold shares didn't do much today and we would like them to be leaders to have a good feeling about gold moving higher. We'll keep and eye on the action overseas tonight and see what tomorrow brings.
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