Friday, October 17, 2014
A very positive expiration bias as the Dow zoomed 263 points on heavy volume. The advance/declines were about 2 to 1 positive. This should turn the summation index back to the upside. But it doesn't necessarily mean that we will be going straight back up. It looks like the next trade could now be the November OEX puts when we get back to the new down trend line. It could be sooner than that but we will have to see what the stock indices do from here. Option premiums for November are high. GE had a gap to the upside and gained 1/2 on good volume after the earnings announcement. We did come off of the highs for the day though. I still like the idea for the March calls here and will be looking to get them on weakness. Gold was off a couple bucks on the futures as the US dollar was higher on the day. The XAU was off 2 1/4. ABX and NEM were lower by 1/3 and GG fell almost a buck. Volume was average. The gold shares look poised to go even lower here. Maybe we'll see one last shake out for the gold shares here when the earnings come out. That's a guess as usual. No trades here for now. Mentally I'm feeling OK. That was quite a week for the stock indexes. The small stocks performed better than the big caps. We will probably test the lows made this week at some point but the decline is done in my opinion. The short term technicals have turned back up. The fear level shot up and we did get a high volume washout on Wednesday. That doesn't mean the market can't go lower as it always goes where it wants to. It simply means the odds favor higher prices going forward according to the technicals. My trading tactics this week left much to be desired. That said, at least I had a winning trade. After last months blow out, over-leveraged losses to the downside, it was good to see something positive. My timing for that idea was unfortunately off by a month. However I can tell you two things that remain true in the game. You have to believe in yourself and you can never give up. Gold continued higher this week but the gold shares certainly did not follow. That usually isn't bullish and probably isn't in this case either. So it is probably best to remain on the sidelines here. Plenty of charts to ponder over the weekend as I try and come up with the next trading idea. For now it's Friday afternoon and time for a break.
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