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Thursday, December 19, 2013

Digesting yesterdays huge gains as the Dow 11 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  The summation index has turned back to the upside.  Bur todays session was probably a preview of things to come in the near term.  Lackluster trading with no real direction.  I'd expect a drift higher in the days to come before the new year.  Options expiration tomorrow.  GE was up 1/8 and the volume was good.  The January calls should work here but I'd wait for a pullback to purchase them.  Gold was off sharply today and not only broke support at $1220 but also closed below $1200.  The precious metal futures declined over $40.  The XAU however only fell 1 1/8.  These stocks could be pretty much sold out at this point.  ABX, GG and NEM all lost around 1/3 on good volume.  I'm still considering some gold share calls for January or February.  Purchasing them after Christmas is the idea for now.  Or not at all depending on what happens between now and then.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm expecting somewhat higher prices tomorrow to close out the week.  The trend is up and getting some calls before the new year begins is the strategy for now.  I did notice some extreme volumes in the January GE calls yesterday but it did not equate with an increase in open interest.  Not exactly sure what the implications there are.  GE is very overbought on the medium term but it appears that there will be one more leg up in the following weeks.  The 27 or 28 strike price should work.  Gold looks like it is about to take out the years low at $1180.  The gold shares are already at this years low.  I might be able to play some bounces but that's about it.  I do not see any sustained rallies there until the fundamentals improve.  When that is, is anybodies guess.  Perhaps I'll just stick trading the OEX.  We'll see what the expiration does tomorrow.

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