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Monday, December 16, 2013

Some upside to start off the week as the Dow gained 129 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were 2 to 1 positive.  We were short term oversold on the stock indices so some positive price action was expected.  I'd expect tomorrow to be a holding pattern prior to the Fed on Wednesday.  There is a good chance that the decline is now over and we will head up to new highs on the major stock averages.  That's my guess for now.  The summation index has yet to turn back to the upside but another day like today and it will.  GE was up 1/8 or so on average volume.  No trades here for now but perhaps I'll try the January calls before the end of the month.  Gold was up almost $10 on the futures as the US dollar was a little weaker on the session.  The XAU rose 3/4.  ABX and GG were up 1/3, while NEM slipped 1/8.  Volume was average.  ABX has shown good relative strength lately, probably due to a positive article in Barrons last week.  I'm still considering the January gold share calls.  I might try the GDX index this time.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm expecting the usual holiday rally to begin and today was probably the start.  The only thing that could change things is a very negative day tomorrow or a surprise from the Fed.  I do not expect the Fed to do anything different on Wednesday.  Gold had a positive start to the week but came off of the highs.  As long as $1220 holds for gold I'll continue to consider the gold share calls.  The timing as always is key.  Next week will be a holiday week and the major players will be out.  So any option purchases should probably be delayed for now until the end of December, barring a decent technical signal.  Perhaps I will heed my own advice for a change.  We'll keep an eye on the overseas markets overnight and take it from there.

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