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Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Just a downside drift today as the Dow fell 52 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The stock indices are trying to make up their mind here.  But we could just see sideways price action for a while.  However the summation index is pointing lower.  I still think I'll take my cues from that and look for lower prices until that turns around.  Not much data to move prices around this week.  The short term technicals for some of the indices are back in the overbought zone.  GE was off a nickel and the volume remains tepid.  No trades for GE right here as it looks like the price could go either way.  Gold was the story of the day again in my mind as the futures gained $25.  The US dollar was slightly weaker.  There are no fundamental reasons for gold to rise here.  There is a potential double bottom in place on the weekly charts.  If the bottom is for real, the target would be $1600.  But that remains to be seen.  The XAU jumped 3 1/3.  ABX up 7/8, GG gained 3/4 and NEM added over 1/2.  Volume was good for the gold shares.  My January GG call order was never filled and I canceled it.  Might be too late here but there is a chance that I'll still try this trade.  ABX has shown the best relative strength here so far.  I don't know if actual real interest is being shown for the gold shares.  It could simply be short covering.  However the specific option on GG that I was trying to trade had a huge expansion of open interest last week.  That should say something.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  RUT is under performing here and that isn't a positive for the stock indexes.  More negative price action would not be a surprise in my opinion.  New price highs would.  8 days left in the December option cycle.  Gold is showing some signs of life but I don't know if it is for real or not.  That said, I'm still keeping a close eye on the GG call options.  I'm still a little gun shy after all of the losing trades over the past year.  We've also already moved up from the technically oversold condition of the gold shares as well.  So we'll see.  

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