Monday, November 21, 2011
We started off the shortened trading week to the downside as the Dow fell 249 points on average volume. We were down well over 300 during the session. The advance/declines were 4 to 1 negative. I was expecting a bounce and it hasn't happened. I did not expect any huge downside and that is exactly what we got. So my idea of what is going on here at the moment is wrong. Oversold and staying there and that is never bullish. Summation index is heading lower. Something is going on but I have no idea what that is. It's happened before. Europe, the US debt problem, fears of another recession, you pick the excuse. I still expect upside medium term for the stock indices but that could be wrong as well. GE lost 3/8 on average volume. I placed an open order for the January calls. I'm leaving it in overnight. The premiums are getting down to about what I'd like to pay for this trade. Not sure it will work but I'm willing to give it a shot. Plenty of time for this trade to work if the order does get filled. Unless we are on the verge of some type of market collapse. I still don't think that is about to happen. Gold got clobbered again today, off over $40 on the futures. The US dollar was higher again today but not a lot. I'm not sure what is going on with gold at the moment either. The XAU lost 3 2/3. ABX down 3/4, GG lower by 7/8 and NEM fell 1/8. Volume was average. The gold shares all came well off of their lows. I would still like to get some January or December calls here. Perhaps today was the day. I'm trying to wait for the Gold/XAU ratio to hit the recent number for a buy signal. Did not happen today. The gold shares are still performing better than the metal itself and that is bullish for the gold shares going forward. Mentally I'm feeling tired and not all that well. It makes the decision making even more of a chore. I'd still like to let this week pass before doing anything but I did place the GE trade. Once again there is something happening in the markets and I can't put my finger on it. I expected this week to be slow due to the holiday and it has started anything but that. We'll see what happens in the overseas markets tonight and take it from there.
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