Monday, November 28, 2011
A bounce was due and a bounce is what we got as the Dow gained 291 points on light volume. The advance/declines were 5 to 1 positive. I'm not sure it is anything more than just a bounce though. The same problems in Europe remain. The next headline will be the next market mover. This is the environment that we find ourselves in. Plenty of economic data out this week, including Fridays employment report. But it seems like nobody pays attention anymore as the focus remains the European debt problem. GE was higher early and then sold all the way back. It gained an 1/8 on average volume after being up 1/2. My GE calls are in the red. I plan on holding them until next year unless the bottom falls out. If GE is a proxy for the overall market again, the stock indices will be heading lower. Not sure if that is the case this time around. Gold had a good day as the US dollar dropped. The precious metal futures gained $25 on the day. The XAU rose 5 3/4. ABX up almost 2, GG higher by 1 1/4 and NEM tacked on 1 1/2. Volume was light as it has been lately. I did place an order for some ABX December calls overnight but it was not filled. I might try this trade again later in the week. The Gold/XAU ratio flashed a buy signal. If we get another one, I'll try this trade again. Mentally I'm feeling better but not 100% yet. We will have to see if the stock indices can hold up here. The summation index is still heading lower. I would like to see some type of positive divergence on the McClellan oscillator to be sure that the recent decline is over. That would be the ideal scenario. We will see if there is any follow through to todays price action tomorrow.
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A number of other factors complicate matters, however. For one thing, investors generally buy stocks according to their expectations about the unpredictable future, not according to current earnings. Expectations can be influenced by a variety of factors, many of them not necessarily rational or justified. As a result, the short-term connection between prices and earnings can be tenuous. stock market timing
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