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Sunday, July 25, 2004

Sunday night with the S&P futures up a little and so is gold.  No trades in the OEX for now.  I will be buying some gold calls this week if the market cooperates.  As I mentioned before the dollar is on the cusp of breaking a multi-year downtrend line along with the XAU just about to break its weekly uptrend line.  I will be trading as if those lines will continue to hold.  I believe they will.  If they don't then I will simply get out of any trades taken.  I think the GDP report on friday will be weaker then expected and the dollar will head lower.  NEM has earnings out on wednesday.  I will try to let that pass before taking a position.  The options still have 4 weeks left for August.  Who knows, I might even be patient and let a base develop but I doubt it.  I think any rally in the stock market will be short-lived or sold into at this point.  Puts will be the play there as conditions warrant.  It is a most difficult game to play.  Volatility has picked up.  Am I up for the challenge?

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