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Friday, July 23, 2004

More downside today.  Dow off 88 points.  Advance/declines negative.  Summation index still pointing down.  Looks like trouble.  Should see some relief rallies along the way but the path of least resistance is down.  Looks like the market thinks Kerry will be the victor in November.  I think that that's part of it.  Also my theory that the economy is heading down could be correct.  Certainly seasonality is a factor.  Gold was off a few bucks today.  The XAU and NEM got down to their short-term trendlines.  I did not buy calls.  They then proceeded to go below the trendlines and close on their lows.  XAU down around 2 1/2 and NEM off 1 1/2.  The longer term weekly uptrendline for the XAU is at 80.  If and when we get there, I'm buying calls.  NEM has its earnings report on wednesday.  I will try to not let that influence me.  I would like to be long before next fridays GDP report if conditions allow.  I believe that report will be weaker than expected and the dollar should fall.  The dollar was stronger today and is approaching a weekly downtrend line at 90.  If it breaks to the upside, all gold calls should not be bought.  Same if the XAU breaks 80.  So we are at a critical juncture or just about there.  More this weekend...

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