My thoughts on the US economy going forward. I really don't think that the economy will be strong. Consumer debt is very high. But you could always say that I suppose. There are no tax rebates coming up. Those checks everybody got the last couple years are no more. Interest rates were and are at historic lows. Everyone who wanted to refinance already has. Whoever could afford to buy a place most likely has by now. The zero interest new car deals are gone. Again if you wanted a new vehicle you have probably already bought it. Witness the recent slump in car sales. Wages are growing at an anemic rate. So there is no extra money being placed in consumers hands that way. With rates this low the economy only grew at around 4% according to the most recent GDP data. It will not be going up from here. Growth will be tepid at best. I think the next boost will be when the troops finally get out of Iraq. But for now, I don't see much. The current administration has thrown everything it could to get the economy going for the upcoming election. In 4 months the election will be over and then what? Rates are starting to rise and even though it's from historically low levels the perception of higher rates is there. Higher gas prices continue to be a drain on spendable dollars. If there is a terrorist attack on our home soil this summer, more contraction will undoubtedly occur. There is the uncertainty of the election outcome. Earlier I didn't think there was any possible way Bush could lose but now I'm not so sure. Businesses will most likely wait to see who wins before committing to new spending in their respective industries. The only plus for purchases this year is a tax law favoring depreciation that expires at the end of this year. I see some inflation for products. But nothing out of control. A little inflation won't hurt the economy going forward. A larger increase most certainly will. So there you have it. An economy that muddles along with its strongest growth in the rearview mirror.