Friday, June 11, 2004
An unexpected day off. And coming rather closely behind Memorial Day weekend. Another welcome break from the action. The S&P futures are off 3 points, the dollar is stronger and gold hasn't moved that much. I can always anticipate what will happen next week but you can never be sure. It doesn't look like there will be a clear signal for the OEX. I am waiting for the XAU to get to the weekly uptrend line and that could happen this week. My prognosis is that when the Fed raises rates at the end of the month it will only be a 1/4 point and the dollar will go lower after that announcement, sending gold higher. I'll look to play NEM again as a proxy for gold. There are inflation numbers coming up this week but they haven't affected the price of gold lately as far as I can tell. We could be entering the summer doldrums period. Although some would claim we have been there for a while. And they may have a valid argument. We are stuck in a trading range with lighter than usual volume. It's been going on for weeks. Which makes the trading tough. If there is no real price movement, they're just aren't any good profit opportunities. I guess you could be an option writer and take some cash. But I'm here to trade and take the writers money. But that is for another day. I'll be taking it easy, checking the headlines and the charts. It will be tough to find a play for next week and the prudent path may be on the sidelines. Patience and discipline are extremely important traits to have sometimes. But it ain't easy...
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