Monday, June 14, 2004
Interesting day today as we sold off from the opening. Dow off 75 points, OEX down 5. There can be a case made that we closed right on the short term uptrend line. Perhaps with favorable inflation data tomorrow we can hold here. But that remains to be seen. The advance/declines were horrible today with declines ahead 5 to 1. Volume again was light. Never trust mondays is another often used cliche. However when the McClellan oscillator number comes out later today, I'm sure it will be negative, turning the summation index down. This implies lower prices. However sometimes after a move into positive territory for the oscillator, a move down through the zero line is what is known as a buy spike. This is a chance to get long for those who missed out on the first move. Confusing, yes but good to know anyway. Since I have no clear convictions at this time, I'm on the sidelines as far as the OEX is concerned. Gold was down a couple bucks today but the XAU and NEM got pounded, down 3 and over a point respectively. We are getting to the area where a double bottom may form. I am ready to buy July NEM calls. If it holds at the weekly uptrend line on the XAU, the trade will work. If it doesn't then I get right out with a small loss. I hope I'm hearing this, "A small loss". Anyway, the options have a lot of time premium in them, however if this trade is right profits will ensue. XAU is at 80 and change, would like to pull the trigger on this one at 78. Hopefully this week, purchasing the NEM July 37.5's at under a buck. Tomorrows inflation data will be important for the overall market and gold itself, so it should be a pretty interesting day. Wish I had the guts to be long the OEX here but there will be better times to try and be a hero. See you at sunrise...
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