A holiday shortened down session on the last trading day of November.  The Dow fell 112 points on very light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 negative.  The summation index is back to sideways.  Negative US/China trade talk now and we are at the mercy of the headlines.  There is now a potential negative RSI divergence for the Dow on the daily chart.  It doesn't show up on the other major stock indices though.  GE was pretty much flat on very light volume.  Gold gained on the negative trade talk.  The futures rose $8.  The US dollar was slightly lower.  The XAU added 1 1/2, while GDX was up 3/8.  Volume was good considering the holiday atmosphere.  I canceled my GDX January call trade as I have missed it.  If we happen to drift back down towards the 26 level I'll consider putting it on again.  Mentally I'm not happy missing this GDX call trade.  My order came very close a couple times to being filled.  Perhaps I need to be a bit more flexible in my pricing.  But the game goes on and there's always another trade out there.  I'll be checking the charts as usual as we begin the month of December.  There's still plenty of time in the December option cycle to make something happen.  I am no doubt leaning towards the SPY puts here as we have been overbought for weeks on end and December can sometimes have a decline to set up the Santa Claus rally.  We'll see how things go this time around.  Europe and Asia were lower to end the month.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a rest.  

The holiday rally continues as the Dow rose 42 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were shy of 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index has turned around.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that bodes well for the bulls.  We'll get a shortened session on Friday but the main players will be off for the rest of the week.  Overbought, staying that way and no overhead resistance.  Nothing has changed and we'll see what happens in December.  GE was off a few cents on about average volume.  Gold fell around $7 as we are just about at the support level of $1450.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on light volume.  I did adjust my order again for the GDX January calls but if support doesn't hold for gold I'll simply cancel it.  The technical indicators for the gold share indices are mid-range.  I do expect some type of rally for gold in the December to January time frame.  Exactly when that will start is the question.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  A low VIX, overbought indicators and new all time highs day after day.  What could go wrong here?  I expected a decline back to the break out former resistance at 3025 for the S&P and it never happened.  In hindsight, buying calls on the break out was the proper play.  There's still plenty of time in the December option cycle for a profitable trade somewhere.  The question is will I be able to find it?  Europe and Asia were higher as money continues to find a home in equities around the world.  Happy Thanksgiving everyone. 

The beat goes on as the Dow added 55 points on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index is back to moving sideways.  It is an overbought market that keeps grinding higher.  How long this lasts is anybody's guess but it's been going on for quite a while.  It is Thanksgiving week and that generally has a positive bias.  The volume today is a surprise but my guess is that all the serious trading for the week is now done.  Players are heading to wherever they're going for the weekend and trading should be thin Wednesday and Friday.  No real US/China trade news although the background noise here is now positive.  Of course that could change on a dime.  GE was off almost 1/4 and the volume was good.  Gold was up around $5 and the US dollar was slightly lower.  The gold shares found buyers as the XAU gained 1 7/8, while GDX added 5/8.  Volume was good.  My open order didn't get filled and it appears that I've missed this trade once again.  I did adjust my order again but I wasn't fast enough.  I'm not exactly sure if this is the time to chase things but I'll leave the order out there the rest of the week.  Once again the time was right today for the calls but I just wasn't good enough to pull it off.  My intra-day execution lacks conviction at the moment.  Mentally I'm feeling frustrated as I did have a chance to put the GDX trade on today but failed.  But you've got to move on.  The VIX is almost down to the lowest level of this year.  Only one way to go from there I think.  Perhaps I'll focus my attention on the SPY December puts.  However it is probably best to wait until next week to put a trade on since the market will clearly be in holiday mode for the remainder of this week.  So perhaps patience is in order for now.  Europe and Asia were generally higher.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

Some positive trade news over the weekend and the market responded as the Dow gained 190 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were better than 2 to 1 positive.  The summation index is now trying to turn back up.  New all time highs for the S&P and the NASDAQ.  It looks like we'll have a positive holiday week for stocks but of course that could change with the next headline.  But I don't think that it will.  The short term technical indicators have turned back up for the major stock indices.  Perhaps we'll get a blow off top here but that's just a guess.  I'm still considering the SPY December puts at some point but not just yet.  GE was up a few cents on average volume.  Gold was off $9.  The US dollar finished slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I adjusted my open order again for the GDX January calls.  Any weakness tomorrow should get this order filled but you never know.  I do think that tomorrow is the time to try this idea, if at all.  26 is the key level for GDX and we are almost there.  If that doesn't hold, then the gold shares are probably going to start to really head south.  That is a possibility here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX has broken through 12 and remains oversold.  It has been oversold for quite a while and implied that the rally had legs which it has.  But my question is just how much longer do we have?  December can produce some weakness and we saw that last year.  I would not chase things higher here.  There may be a shot at the SPY December puts at some point in this option cycle.  With the extra week already in there, patience for now on that trade.  Plus we could just grind higher as well.  There is no overhead resistance.  I do not expect any type of short squeeze here though.  Gold is getting back to the support at $1450.  I expect it to hold there but that doesn't mean that it will.  I am looking to purchase the GDX January calls tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were both higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments. 

The Dow bounced back 109 points today on lighter volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving lower.  Tit for tat trade headlines today but no real progress one way or the other.  The short term technical indicators for the S&P are trying to turn back up here.  I'll be looking for a holiday grind higher next week barring an unforeseen surprise.  Perhaps if we see a higher high fro the S&P 500 with a lower RSI reading, I'll try the SPY December puts.  GE was up a couple cents and the volume was light.  Gold lost a couple bucks as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on very light volume.  Mid-range on the indicators for GDX.  I'd like to see a roll over to the 26 level but the market rarely cooperates.  I may adjust down my open order for the GDX January calls over the weekend.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The indicators rolled back down in the VIX and that's a plus for the bulls.  The medium term indicators remain oversold but in rallies they can stay that way for weeks.  I am expecting holiday higher prices next week for stocks.  However remaining on the sidelines isn't a bad idea with Thursday off and a Friday shortened session.  I'll do the chart work over the weekend and take it from there.  Asia was higher with the exception of China.  Europe rose too.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

Still moving lower as the Dow fell 55 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is still moving down.  Not a lot to report about todays action.  We were down from the start, made it back to slightly positive only to drift lower the final couple of hours.  No conviction to the sell off and that's a plus for the bulls.  The short term technical indicators for the major averages have plenty of room to go lower but my guess is that we'll turn things around back to the upside soon.  A holiday week is coming and I'd expect some positive market action.  After that, who knows?  GE was up 1/8 on light volume.  Gold was off around $8.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU shed about 1 3/4, while GDX lost 1/2.  Volume was good.  I adjusted my open order lower for the GDX January calls.  There's plenty of room on the short term indicators here to run lower as well.  Support for GDX at the 26 level and that would be the spot to try and get the open option order filled.  Haven't gotten there yet and if the level doesn't hold you won't want the calls anyway.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX hasn't shown much life here with a mild decline in stocks.  That's a plus.  However we remain at the mercy of the next trade headline either way.  I doubt we'll hear much with Thanksgiving on the horizon but I could be wrong.  To me what we are seeing now is simply a pause before we set new all time highs again.  After that, when we get into December, then it could be more interesting to the downside.  Patience is still advised for now with regards to the SPY trading.  Gold has had a lackluster levitation for the past week and a half.  $1450 is the level to watch there.  Europe and Asia continued lower last night.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow. 

Some selling today as the Dow fell 112 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index continues to drift lower.  US/China trade worries caused a sell off mid way through the trading session.  However the market found buyers and well off of the lows for the day.  The Fed minutes didn't reveal anything new and there wasn't much market reaction.  The short term technical indicators have now rolled over for the major stock indices.  Perhaps the long awaited decline to the break out point is about to begin.  Or this is just a slight bump in the road to higher prices.  Time will tell.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Still pretty overbought here.  Gold was slightly lower and the US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional moves higher on light volume.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We're still at the mercy of the next trade headline and that's not an easy way to go.  The options trading is hard enough on its own.  I'm probably going to let next weeks holiday pass before I seriously take a look at the SPY options.  Of course I'm keeping an eye on gold and the gold shares.  I'm still leaning bullish there but would need to see a move back to the 26 level on GDX to get interested in the January calls there.  I do have the open order still out there but that can be adjusted if we start to drop on GDX.  However at the rate things are going, it's possible I won't do a trade there as well.  So it's watch and wait for now.  Europe and Asia were lower overnight.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.

A mixed bag today as the Dow fell 102 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow, with the NASDAQ in the green.  The summation index is still moving lower but not with any conviction.  No real drivers of price here as the market waits for the next trade or impeachment headline.  We're still way overbought any way you look at it.  I'm patiently waiting for the next SPY trade.  Perhaps waiting until after the holiday week is the way to go here.  GE was up a few cents on light volume.  Gold and the US dollar ended flat for the session.  The XAU and GDX were little changed on light volume.  The technical indicators for GDX are mid-range.  The XAU is overbought but not completely.  I am leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there but will adjust it if we turn around in gold.  The recent move higher has been lackluster and muted.  Plus it hasn't really gone up much compared to the previous selling.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The Bollinger bands on the VIX are converging which usually precedes a big move.  If the VIX rises and volatility picks up we should see stocks fall.  In theory at least.  I'm still not ruling out a return to the break out point of 3025 in the S&P 500.  That would be the spot to try the SPY calls if it actually happens.  Sure you could try the SPY puts soon but trying to pick the top in an extremely overbought market is tough.  There have been plenty of signals and none of them have worked.  There's one ready right now as well.  But the declines have been shallow and just a stop along the way to higher prices.  Europe and Asia were mixed once again.  We'll see if the Fed minutes tomorrow get things going.

The start of a new trading week continues with the same grind higher for stocks.  The Dow rose 31 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways with a downward bias.  Overbought with new all time highs.  The beat goes on.  I'm not sure how much longer this can go on.  Plenty of time in the December option cycle, so there's no hurry to put on a SPY trade.  GE was off a few cents on average volume.  Gold was up a few bucks as the US dollar was lower.  The XAU was up 1 1/3, while GDX gained 1/2.  Volume was about average.  It appears that I have once again missed the GDX call trade.  Not happy about that.  However we have yet to see a robust rise here for the gold shares.  I'm leaving my open order for the GDX January calls out there but will adjust it as necessary if we start to see gold falter.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I'm still waiting for a pull back to the breakout at 3025 for the S&P 500.  I might be waiting forever for that to occur.  With no overhead resistance the market simply continues to gravitate higher.  The low VIX just helps that along.  The favorable seasonal time period is another plus.  If a deal is reached with the US and China trade issue that is actually signed even higher prices could happen.  I will say that sometimes in December there is a decline in the market to set things up for a January rally.  But it's still November and the overbought condition has persisted for weeks on end.  So it's watch and wait for now.  Europe and Asia were mixed overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A positive headline on the US/China trade front and the Dow soared 222 points.  The advance/declines were positive and the volume was average despite option expiration.  The summation index is back to a sideways trend.  We are now getting overbought to the extreme on most of the major stock averages.  How long will this go on?  Usually longer than you can stay solvent according to the old saying.  Retail sales came in where expected.  Next week doesn't have a lot of economic data due out.  The Fed beige book is about the only potential market mover that I see.  Of course we're simply at the mercy of what comes out of the US and China at this point.  GE was up 1/4 on light volume.  Gold was off around $4 on the futures and came up from the lows of the session.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX had slight fractional losses on light volume.  My open order for the GDX January calls remains out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low as the market hits new all time highs.  The market action of the past couple of weeks was a consolidation and not a top.  There's no overhead resistance and I'm not sure just how long this can go on.  The extra week in the December option cycle along with a holiday week thrown in there makes trading the SPY here probably something that should be put on hold.  I'd still love to see a retracement to the break out point but that doesn't appear likely now.  I guess we'll just enjoy the rise up and see how high we can go.  If a trade deal is ever signed, to me that would be the top and time to purchase some puts.  But we still have no idea if and when that will occur.  We'll see what happens over the weekend and go from there.  I'll be checking the charts as usual.  Europe and Asia rallied to close out the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.  

The market continues to just hang around here as the Dow was off a point on light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly positive.  The summation index has rolled over but isn't moving steadily down yet.  Most of the major stock indices remain overbought.  We are in a sloppy, slightly upward congestion zone for now.  I do think that whichever way it breaks won't hold for long regardless of the direction.  There are no catalysts long or short here at the moment.  Perhaps the next US/China trade headline will get things going.  Retail sales data is out tomorrow morning, maybe that can get us moving.  It's also options expiration Friday.  GE was flat and the volume was very light.  Gold continued higher as the futures added another $7.  The US dollar was lower.  The XAU and GDX again had slight fractional gains on light volume.  It appears that I've missed the GDX call trade again but the price velocity here isn't what it was.  So I'm thinking that I still may have a chance here on a decline in the next couple of weeks if it occurs.  The technical indicators are now mid-range for the gold shares.  The limp rally that we've seen in gold isn't impressive and a turn around would not be a surprise.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  Not exactly sure what the market is waiting here for.  We are either building some type of a short term top or consolidating before breaking out to new all time highs again.  Take your pick.  We'll be rolling into the December option cycle next week and they have an extra week in them.  Therefore premiums will be higher than normal and that makes for even tougher decisions.  We will not remain overbought forever and somewhere in that cycle will be a chance for the SPY December puts to work.  The VIX tried to pop up today but fell back.  We are however working the short term indicators back to the middle of the range.  I still think that any decline will be shallow and stopping at 3025 on the S&P 500 if one ever occurs.  That's my best guess for now.  Europe and Asia were lower once again.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.    

Back and forth today as the Dow gained 92 points on above average volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative again.  The summation index is starting to roll over.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with the NASDAQ in the red.  The market seems to be in a churn here as the overbought condition persists.  I really think that some corrective price action is necessary before we go much higher but I cannot rule out a grind upwards during expiration week.  The Fed chairman testimony was a non event.  The TRAN and RUT were both lower.  My thinking on the next SPY trade is to get through this week and we'll take it from there.  GE was off 1/8 on average volume.  Gold was up $7 on the futures.  The XAU and GDX had fractional gains on light volume.  I'm leaving my GDX January call trade out there but will adjust it lower if the gold shares start to decline here.  Another run down to the 26 level for GDX should get this trade filled.  But I must admit the background for the precious metal now is not as bullish as it was earlier in the year.  Mentally I'm feeling bit tired, did not sleep well.  We've been in a sideways drift higher for the S&P for the past week and a half.  We have hit new all time highs but the action hasn't been exactly what you'd call robust.  Of course some kind of trade headline out of the blue could get things going either way but we can't take positions based on that.  I still think things need to go lower before we can get going much higher.  A trip back to the former resistance at 3025 would do the trick.  Until then we'll have to wait on the SPY for now.  Gold has been drifting lower for 2 1/2 months.  That has worked off the overbought conditions but there aren't any near term catalysts to move higher that I can see.  That is why I'm willing to go out until January on the gold share calls here.  It would give the trade some time to work.  Bu that also means that would could just continue to drift here as well.  The trading is never easy.  Europe and Asia were lower.  We'll see what tomorrow brings.   

Another mixed day as the Dow was flat on the day with light volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still tracking sideways.  The NASDAQ along with the S&P 500 were positive.  My guess is that the market is trying to make up its mind on whether or not to roll over here.  Still short term overbought on all the technical indicators that I look at for the S&P.  That isn't to say that we can't grind higher for the rest of expiration week but a pause is now long overdue.  GE was up a few cents on about average volume.  Gold was up a couple bucks and came off of it lows set earlier in the day.  The US dollar was slightly higher.  The XAU was up a point, while GDX added 1/3.  Volume was average.  My open order for the GDX January calls wasn't filled despite hitting my buy price as the low for the session.  This trade now may have been missed if the gold shares continue to climb tomorrow.  My hope is that they trade sideways form here for a while but if the trade has been missed so be it.  I'm not all together certain that the calls here are the right course of action with the recent background negative developments for gold.  But as usual the markets go where they want and anything can happen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the Fed chairman speaking in Washington tomorrow and that has the potential to move things.  I'm not exactly sure what to expect there.  Probably more of the status quo.  The VIX remains oversold and continues with rather low readings.  This is a positive for stocks as long as it keeps up.  It also says to me that any decline will be shallow in the near term.  Barring some unforeseen out of the blue headline.  Gold and the gold shares look like they're trying to put in a near term bottom here.  I hope for my sake that it takes more time than today to develop.  Europe and Asia were generally higher last night.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.

A mixed bag again to start the week as the Dow rose 10 points on light volume.  The advance/declines were negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow with both the NASDAQ and the S&P 500 lower.  We got a signal on Friday from the McClellan oscillator for a big move within the next two sessions.  That should occur tomorrow if the signal proves valid.  We sold off hard at the open today with Dow off over 150.  But as has been the case lately the declines are seen as buying opportunities.  It was a partial holiday today with banks and the bond market closed.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.  GE was off over 1/8 on average volume.  Gold lost another $6 today as the US dollar was a bit lower.  The XAU and GDX finished little changed.  Oversold now for gold and GDX but not the XAU.  I did place another open order for the GDX January calls but I'm not exactly sure this is the right trade.  I'm leaving it out there though and it could get filled with a bit more of a decline for GDX.  Once again we are at an area technically that has ended the declines in the gold shares before.  However I'm not as confident in the upside from here this time around as the backdrop for higher metals prices isn't as bullish.  That may change with the testimony form the Fed chairman on Wednesday or it may simply further depress price.  We'll see.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains oversold and at a low level.  That is why the recent rally hasn't failed.  We had a chance to turn things around there today but it was not to be.  Perhaps the usual bullish options expiration week bias will take hold.  We are overdue for some kind of selling though.  I do think that a trip back to the break out point cannot be ruled out but it is a question of when.  Inflation data due out later in the week along with retail sales on Friday.  Everybody will be back at their desks tomorrow.  Europe and Asia were generally lower overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the market action and headlines tonight.  

Sputtering to the upside for the Dow as it gained 6 points on average volume.  The advance/declines were barely positive.  The summation index is heading sideways.  The overall market was much stronger than the Dow and that's a plus for the bulls.  Remaining overbought here on the technical indicators as we grind our way higher.  New closing all time highs for some of the major stock indices albeit on lighter volume.  I'm still in a cautious mood here for the overall market.  Yes we can grind higher with the VIX at the low level that it is.  But with the narrow breadth I think most of the gains have already been made and the next move should be a drop back to the breakout of 3025 for the S&P 500.  The question is from what level.  At this rate 3100 seems a reasonable upside target.  GE was up another 1/4 on good volume.  A straight line up here lately.  Gold dropped $10 on the futures as the US dollar was higher.  The XAU and GDX had fractional losses on average volume.  I re-entered my GDX January call trade but it wasn't filled.  I'll go over this idea again on the weekend.  Oversold on GDX but not the XAU.  Gold and silver appear to be breaking down here but the technical indicators are at levels that rewarded purchasing calls in the recent past.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The bond market will be closed on Monday for the holiday.  All others will be open.  Perhaps we'll continue higher into the expiration in a week.  But I do not expect any major move to the upside from here.  I will wait for a pull back to the breakout zone and look to try some SPY calls there if it happens.  Gold looks like it's heading lower here on the weekly chart.  Support there comes in at $1425.  GDX seems to be at the moment of truth since the support there is at 26 and we are practically there.  The weekly chart there looks like it wants to break down although we are oversold but not completely.  Tough call but I'm leaning towards attempting the GDX calls anyway.  More study needs to done over the weekend.  Asia was mixed and Europe generally lower to finish the week.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.

A good news headline from the US/China trade talks and the Dow soared 182 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is moving sideways.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow.  This month or so rally is now losing steam.  The breadth lately hasn't matched up properly with the price moves higher.  We could drift higher into the expiration next week but a sell off would not surprise me.  Had we rallied into the close today I would have a different narrative.  But things with the market are starting to look tired to me.  We will not stay overbought forever.  The VIX says any decline here won't be huge.  However a pause in the festivities is now overdue.  GE was up 1/4 and the volume remains pretty good.  Gold got whacked today and was off almost $25.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/3, while GDX dropped over 3/4.  Volume was heavy.  It appears that the big move forecast by the Bollinger bands is to the downside.  I canceled my open order for the GDX January calls.  Support for gold comes in at around $1450.  Another day like today and we'll be there.  The gold shares aren't completely oversold yet but should be soon perhaps even by tomorrow.  The fundamentals have now changed for gold it seems as uncertainty on the trade war is waning, rates are no longer going lower, Brexit has been put off again and the US dollar is rising.  I'm still a believer in golf though for the longer term.  I may also re-enter my GDX January call trade tonight after I check the charts again.  At a lower price of course and perhaps a different strike price.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  I originally thought that we would simply move up into the expiration next week.  The recent price action says that perhaps some decline is due sooner rather than later.  The breadth is narrowing so much that the rally simply cannot go on like this.  I'd certainly like to try some SPY November puts here but don't know if I will.  I do think that the breakout higher is for real though but that doesn't mean that we can't have a move back down to the breakout point at around 3025 for the S&P 500.  So there will be plenty to ponder as we consider what to do overnight.  Europe and Asia rallied on the positive trade war news.  We'll close out the trading week tomorrow.

A day of hanging around as the Dow was flat on very heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative again.  The summation index is beginning to turn sideways.  The NASDAQ was lower today.  Nothing has really changed with the technical indicators.  I view what is going on as a pause before we move up to new highs again.  Things will roll over eventually.  GE was up a few cents and the volume was OK.  Gold bounced back $8 today.  The US dollar finished relatively unchanged.  The XAU and GDX had positive fractional gains on light volume.  GOLD reported earnings and had a mild gain for the day.  Still waiting on the big move for gold and the gold shares.  I'm leaving my order in for the GDX January calls.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX remains low and there's nothing to suggest an imminent return to volatility.  Of course that could change with the next US/China trade headline but even that hasn't had any real effect lately.  The market expects some kind of deal to get signed in the near future.  Unless there's a complete breakdown in talks, that is the expected outcome.  Even if the deal doesn't mean much.  Seven days to go in the November option cycle.  My guess is that the market will at least hold up until expiration.  You cannot underestimate the no overhead resistance scenario.  There's nothing in the way to higher prices in the near term and probably longer.  Asia was mixed and Europe higher overnight.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight headlines.

A mixed bag today but the Dow continued higher.  The most watched index rose 30 points on pretty heavy volume.  The advance/declines were slightly negative.  The summation index is still moving up but we may see a change here soon.  The overall market was weaker than the Dow, with the S&P 500 in negative territory.  The trend remains up but we could see some near term weakness now.  The S&P has moved pretty far from its 50 day moving average but I don't think that a huge decline is about to happen.  We're still overbought on all the short term indicators.  GE was up a few cents and the volume remains good.  Gold fell today as the futures dropped $25 seemingly out of nowhere.  The US dollar was higher.  The XAU was off 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was good.  It could have been worse for the gold shares but they continue to hold up for now.  NEM dropped on its earnings report.  I adjusted down my open order for the GDX January calls.  Todays gold price action is leading me to believe that the big move coming will be lower instead of higher.  If that's the case there will be no need to try the GDX January calls right now.  It is some thing to keep a close eye on.  Mentally I'm feeling a bit tired, did not sleep well.  I'm also physically not 100% with a sore back.  Anything that takes away from the trading concentration is an obstacle that must be overcome.  The VIX was up a bit again today.  As long as it stays below the 16 level the rally will live on in my view.  However some short term weakness would not be out of the question.  Perhaps that will set us up for a try at the SPY November calls going into expiration week.  Just a guess on my part.  The big drop in gold today is a concern for the bulls.  A close below $1475 could take us to $1450 in a hurry.  That would totally negate my outlook for GDX calls here.  Hasn't happened yet but again, it is something to watch very closely.  GOLD is reporting its earnings tomorrow and that could set the tone for the price action in the gold indices tomorrow.  Asia and Europe were higher overnight.  We'll see how things go tomorrow.     

Continuing higher as the Dow gained 114 points on heavy volume.  The advance/declines were positive.  The summation index is moving higher.  We remain overbought as we have been for weeks.  There's some economic data due this week but not a lot.  There's also some earnings to deal with but the bulk of companies have reported.  The market has broken out, the volume is decent and there is no overhead resistance.  Expect higher prices going forward.  GE was up 1/2 on heavy volume.  Overbought here as well.  Gold finished flat on the day, while the US dollar was higher.  The XAU dropped 1 1/3, while GDX shed 1/2.  Volume was good.  NEM reports tomorrow followed by GOLD on Wednesday.  This should move the gold shares indices one way or the other.  I've left my open order for the GDX January calls out there.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX was a bit higher today with a market rally.  That usually is a sign of some weakness ahead.  I don't think I'll be able to trade it though.  The most recent time this occurred, we were only down for a day.  Plus with new all time highs being made on a daily basis, it's hard to be bearish here.  Perhaps if I get a better signal in the days ahead a trade might present itself in the SPY.  The Bollinger bands remain tight for gold and something big will happen there soon in my view.  I'm still assuming that it will be to the upside.  Time will tell on that.  Europe and Asia were generally higher.  We'll keep an eye on the overnight developments.

The jobs report was a bit better than expected and the market liked what it saw.  The Dow climbed 301 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were almost 3 to 1 positive.  The summation index is moving back up.  Overbought and have been for weeks.  No overhead resistance for the major averages.  We're hitting new all time highs on the major stock indices.  My idea for the SPY November puts was wrong.  It might be appropriate as we move forward but it would be hard to buck the trend here.  The market had chances to sell off this week but it didn't.  That probably got rid of a lot of the selling and there are only buyers left.  Shorts have to be covered as well.  No overhead resistance is a huge factor too.  GE was up 3/8 on good volume.  Gold was up a buck as the US dollar continued lower.  The XAU and GDX had fractional moves one way or the other on good volume.  The gold shares are overbought but there doesn't seem to be any sellers left there either.  We will get earnings form GOLD and NEM next week.  That should move things either way for GDX.  My open order for the GDX January calls looks like it will not be filled.  I may have to adjust things again here.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  The VIX stays oversold and that means the market is in rally mode.  No telling how long this condition will last.  All the way until this months expiration?  I certainly don't know.  The US/China trade tariffs have moved to the background.  The US presidents pending impeachment hearings haven't affected stocks.  The postponement of Brexit has elicited a yawn.  The market is ignoring most everything and moving higher.  You cannot get in the way of that.  I'll be checking the charts over the weekend as usual.  But we are in bullish mode for the foreseeable future.  The positive seasonality is another plus.  Asia was mixed with Europe higher.  It's Friday afternoon and time for a break.