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Thursday, July 25, 2019

We saw some selling today as the Dow fell 129 points on good volume.  The advance/declines were short of 3 to 1 negative.  The summation index is still trending sideways but another day like today will turn it down.  Could we be forming some kind of top here?  The short term technical indicators for the S&P now look like they want to turn back down.  Everything was looking positive yesterday but the market does what it wants.  GE lost 1/4 on light volume.  Gold dropped almost $10 as the US dollar was a bit higher.  The XAU lost 2 1/8, while GDX shed almost 3/4.  Volume was good.  I'm hoping that this is the start of an actual decline for the gold shares but that remains to be seen.  Mentally I'm feeling OK.  We'll get the first look at 2nd quarter GDP tomorrow morning.  That should set the early tone for the day.  It is expected to be lower than the 1st quarter and I think everyone can agree on that.  Any surprise will have market consequences.  We are still waiting on the Fed for next week.  I would like to have the guts to purchase some SPY August puts ahead of that announcement but if we do drop tomorrow that window of opportunity will probably have passed.  It also may be prudent to let the Fed out of the way before taking any positions.  But you can't stay on the sidelines forever.  Asia higher and Europe lower overnight.  We close out the trading week tomorrow.

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